Coronavirus infections in Italy, the analyzes “tell us that we are most likely close to peak of Covid cases that could arrive around Christmas“So at Adnkronos Salute the physicist Giorgio Sestili who has been analyzing and monitoring the epidemic of Sars-CoV-2 since the beginning of the pandemic.
“The forecasts made by me and Roberto Battiston who a month ago were talking about a peak of 25-30 thousand would be confirmed and it seems to me that the data are confirming the forecast. In the last week there has been a 22% increase in positives compared to the previous 7 days, but if we see this increase it is slowly decreasing because we have gone from + 50% to + 30% and now to + 22%. There is therefore a slowdown in the growth trend “is the analysis by Sestili for Adnkronos Salute.
With regard to hospitalizations in intensive care and deaths “the graphs of the weekly average show that the two curves have become hunched and we will slowly see the values go down”, says Sestili, creator of the Facebook page ‘Coronavirus – Scientific data and analysis’, on the web with its own website www.giorgiosestili.it. But how is all this possible? “There is the effect of the third doses which are running a lot – explains the physicist – especially in the frail and in the elderly. There is also an aspect that can make us optimistic, 230 thousand first doses were registered in a month – he observes – an important data in a country where we have understood that there is a hard core of no-vax. If we look at the age of these people, they are often young people between 19 and 29 years old. It is a slice of the population that does not fill hospitals but has a very active social life and can be a vehicle for contagion “.
What predictions can be made for the Regions that are in the balance between the white and yellow areas? “The infections will grow for 2-3 weeks but the hospitals will not reach saturation levels seen in the past – replies Sestili -. But it is clear that there will be Regions that will go yellow and this is good because, thanks to reinforced measures, it will be possible to further limit the risk of contagion “.
Finally, from 16 December the vaccinations in the age group 5-11 years. What impact will they have? “Surely they will affect – concludes Sestili – because in that age group there are 20% of infections in the last 30 days, data from the ISS. It is a non-immunized slice of population that can now be vaccinated and this will be really important “.
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