In the Chinese district, the death rate has surpassed that of the worst days in the United States. An “announced” disaster due to the very few vaccinated elderly and the large number of people who have never encountered the virus and are still susceptible
Hong Kong is grappling with a dramatic rise in coronavirus cases, because it is accompanied by a mortality rate which is estimated to be the highest in the world, even exceeding – in proportion – that of the United States.
The situation
On March 2 they registered more than 55,000 new cases of Covidmore than the approximately 42,000 cases reported by the United States on March 1, with a local record (March 1) of 172 deaths (see in chart above the comparison on the new positives between the USA, Italy, Denmark and Singapore and in that under the surge in deaths in Hong Kong that currently dominates other countries).
According to the calculations of the Johns Hopkins University, the corresponding death rate is 2.32 per 100,000 people. If the city (which has about 7.4 million people) had the same population as the United States it would have recorded the equivalent of over 7,700 deaths. A much higher number than the 4,442 and 4,219 recorded on January 20, 2021 and February 4, 2022, respectively, the worst two days of pandemic for the United States so far.
The authorities have not yet decided whether to impose a blockade, but the health system is overwhelmed, hospitals (and morgues) are packed and many people forced to sleep away from home due to lack of adequate quarantine facilities.
What’s going on? It is the chronicle of an announced disaster that sees several concomitant factors:
-the arrival in the country of sister variant of Omicron (BA.2),
– the low rate of vaccinatedespecially among the elderly,
– the use of less effective vaccines,
– the presence of a lot of people still susceptible at Covid.
Very few healed
In detail, in Hong Kong there is a prevalence of the Omicron 2 variant, which is even more contagious than Omicron 1: this very high rate of contagiousness is grafted onto an “almost virgin” population for SARS-CoV-2. As can be seen in the graph of the new cases (for millions of people) the exponential increase is recorded today, but starting from a zero line (for much of 2021 Hong Kong had hardly any local Covid cases). The Chinese Zero Covid policy, achieved with strict closures and quarantines, it protected the population but also made it very susceptible: very few have antibodiesbecause very few are healed.
Very few elderly people vaccinated
In addition, according to data released by the government last weekend, 91% of deaths concern elderly people who have not been fully vaccinated.
In chart above we see the distribution of vaccinated people with two doses by age group (source: government data elaborated by Quartz). The population most at riskthat of the 80-year-olds, is vaccinated for only a small part, 30.3%. In Italy we are 95.1%. This already explains the deaths.
More than 600 nursing homes in Hong Kong are experiencing outbreaks, with 3,150 residents and approximately 900 infected employees. Nearly 75,000 elderly and disabled people live in residential facilities in Hong Kong. For nearly a year, experts have been warning that Hong Kong’s low vaccination rates among the elderly would become a problem.
Very few with the third dose (anti-Omicron)
And it’s not the only one. In Hong Kong, widespread use was made of Chinese vaccines, which proved ineffective against Omicron. Recently vaccinations are also made with Pfizer but it is known that even two doses of Pfizer may not be enough with the Omicron variant, especially to counter the spread of the infection. After a few months the protection of the two doses, in fact, decreases, a third dose is required to really complete the vaccination cycle. On this the Asian district is still lagging behind (see graph below): with just over 20 percent of the population total with booster. In Italy 83.4% of the population took two doses, 63.5% received the third dose and the healed are still 3.9%.
The Zero Covid strategy
Although the Zero Covid strategy has been effective for a long time and has been successful in keeping some countries (or areas) free from the virus, it has received many criticisms: not only because of the (economic and social) difficulty of keeping the population in lockdown and isolated, but also because, in the event of “leaks”, it would have left people susceptible, giving the virus a fertile ground on which to spread without finding obstacles . Furthermore, the absence of cases somehow induced the population not to get vaccinated, but the countries that have adopted this practice should have drawn up emergency plans on universal vaccination and on how to quickly return to bring down the infection when and if the cases. had begun to spread.
For example, in Hong Kong they are estimated to be lack of rapid antigen tests, quarantine facilities and field hospitals.
Pending the decision on the lockdown, the city has now decided to make tests mandatory for all its citizens. Residents will have to undergo three rounds of Covid-19 tampons starting in mid-March.
March 3, 2022 (change March 3, 2022 | 12:23)
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