The chief minister of ScotlandNicola Sturgeon, reactivated this week a new campaign of UK independence. The head of government wants to organize a new self-determination referendum for 2023, despite the refusal of the British government, which must authorize the process.
(Read here: Scotland reactivates the campaign for independence from the United Kingdom)
Sturgeon published this Tuesday a series of documents that wield arguments for independencewith which he hopes to put pressure on the London Executive to allow him to call the vote next year.
(You may be interested: EU takes legal action against the United Kingdom for breaching the post-Brexit agreement)
But how feasible is this proposal and what needs to happen? Next, we explain it in four keys.
Why does Scotland want independence from the UK?
Although the idea has been around for several years, part of the arguments in 2022 seem to be aimed at the messes that have been arising as a result of ‘Brexit’ in the country, that is, when the British decided to leave the European Union ( EU).
(See also: What is the UK’s controversial migrant deportation program)
In one of the reports that were released, the Scottish government analyzes the performance of 10 European countries such as Ireland, Switzerland or Belgium. The document ensures that these nations are “more prosperous, fairer and more productive than the United Kingdom”, according to Sturgeon.
The people of Scotland, he stressed, “are suffering the impacts of rising costs of living, low growth and rising inequality, constrained public finances and the many implications of a ‘Brexit’ we did not vote for.”
Scottish independence leaders advocate these arguments to show their discontent with the ‘Brexit’. In fact, in the referendum on whether to remain or leave the EU held in June 2016, Scotland voted to remain by 62%, but the final result for the entire territory was ‘Brexit’.
“All these problems have been made worse or, more obviously in the case of Brexit, have been directly caused by the fact that we are not independent,” he added.
“After all that has happened, Brexit, Covid, (British Prime Minister) Boris Johnson, the time has come to present a different and better vision,” Sturgeon told a news conference in Edinburgh.
Who and how is the referendum called?
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is the one who must authorize the independence referendum. However, London had already authorized one in 2014, which the Scots rejected with 55% of the vote.
However, at the time, the UK was still in the EU and now Sturgeon says that the situation has changed, which is why he is again calling for a new vote.
However, Johnson has repeatedly denied this opportunity and ensures that at least a generation must pass before he can be summoned again, according to the British BBC.
British analysts predict a long and tortuous road in this direction where the future of independence is uncertain.
What if Johnson refuses?
According to that same British chain, there could be a second path in the British courts if Johnson refuses to call the referendum.
Sturgeon could try to file a lawsuit so that the court decides whether or not she has the power to call the vote. But British analysts predict a long and tortuous road in this direction where the future of independence is uncertain.
The other scenario, raised by the BBC, is that the Scottish government summons the votes without the consent of the London Executive, but with the approval of its own Parliament, something that could lead to a crisis similar to the one that occurred with the independence of Catalonia, in Spain.
How would the Scots vote?
Before embarking on this turbulent political operation, Sturgeon, his party and their allies must ensure that they have a good chance of prospering. According to a poll cited by the BBC, the average of the polls in the country suggest that 48% of Scots support independence, while 52% are against it.
But, precisely, for this reason the head of government launched her campaign this week to carry out her proposal. And that is why it is predicted that British domestic politics will be shaken this rest of 2022 and early 2023 with this independence crusade.
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