For several years, Mexico City has celebrated its triumph against homicidal violence. Statistics show a sustained decrease in murders in the capital, at least since 2019, the first year of the Government of Claudia Sheinbaum, from Morena, who left office a few months ago, in search of the presidency. At the same time, the records of violent deaths labeled under the concept of “undetermined” cause or intention remain high, unlike what happens in practically the rest of the regions, which has provoked criticism from specialists.
The death figures from the National Statistics Institute (Inegi) for 2022, released this Wednesday, indicate a new decrease in murders in the capital. Mexico City registered 747 murder victims last year, a milestone, half that of 2018. The data even lowers the records of the local Prosecutor’s Office, collected in the databases of the Executive Secretariat of the National Public Security System (SESNSP). . According to the agency, the capital registered 871 murder victims in 2022.
The difference between both accounts points to the origin of the record. While the Prosecutor’s Offices accumulate data from their own investigations, the Inegi does so from death certificates, signed by forensic doctors. The variations exist in Mexico City and the rest of the states and illuminate precisely the criteria that each one uses to put labels. The problem begins precisely here, at least in the capital.
Beyond the murders, Mexico City last year counted 1,549 violent deaths labeled as “events of undetermined intent,” according to Inegi. That is to say, in hundreds of death certificates for violent deaths in the capital that reached the institute, the doctors failed to indicate whether they were accidents or murders. Of the total violent deaths registered in the capital in 2022, those 1,549 represent 38%, a percentage much higher than that of the rest of the states, with the exception of the State of Mexico, with 15%.
This indeterminacy in labeling violent deaths is not an anomaly, something that only happened last year. It’s been happening for years. In a study that analyzes the statistical behavior of homicides and disappearances of people in Mexico, anthropologist Elena Azaola shows a growing trend since 2013. Then, the head of government of the capital was Miguel Ángel Mancera. In that year, violent deaths labeled as “event of undetermined intent” totaled 841. Since then they have only grown.
The controversy is served. Why do Mexico City forensic doctors link so many violent deaths to undetermined causes? Is the capital trying to hide murders with bureaucratic tricks? The political moment does not help. Homicidal violence in Mexico is at historic peaks. The country has counted more than 30,000 murders annually for six years and the only success story seems to be that of the capital, with Sheinbuam at the head of the Government. The head of government is seeking the presidency in next year’s elections and there are those who think that her success in Mexico City is partly pure makeup.
Eduardo Clark, part of the city’s Digital Public Innovation Agency, flatly denies any setup. “In the city, for almost 10 years, we have always had a higher proportion of “undetermined intention” compared to the rest of the country. “That is important to emphasize because I think there has been some bad faith, as if it had been a new phenomenon to simulate a decrease in homicides.” Clark adds that “the intentionality or otherwise of a death is not something that can often be determined at the time a doctor certifies the death.”
The specialist gives as an example a car hitting a pedestrian. It seems difficult for such an event to occur intentionally, but it cannot be ruled out. In this way, doctors would avoid being blunt and classifying the victim’s death as unintentional. “Of these 1,549 deaths, in a very very preliminary analysis, I think the vast majority, by far, appear to be traffic and other accidents,” he says. “Things like drownings and, very importantly, suicides are included in that same category. The doctor, at the time he signs the certificate, cannot ensure whether it was suicide or whether there was intent. “That has to go through a ministerial investigation,” he adds.
Lawyer Vanessa Romero has dedicated the last few weeks to studying the phenomenon together with academic Carlos Pérez Ricart. Her conclusion is similar to that proposed by Clark. “We found no evidence that the Prosecutor’s Office is hiding homicides. Our hypotheses are two, complementary. The first is that when medical examiners find a body, in the absence of additional information, they prefer to call it an event of undetermined intentionality, so as not to incur further responsibility. You could say that it is a good practice,” says Romero. The second is that the Prosecutor’s Office and the Forensic Sciences Institute (Incifo) are not updating Inegi on the reclassification of these events, which is why these numbers remain so high,” she adds.
The idea that violent deaths from undetermined causes hide hundreds of accidents is, however, questionable. Clark’s argument clashes with what has happened in past years. The anthropologist Azaola collects data from the city’s Incifo, which feeds, by the way, the Inegi database. Statistics show that the number of violent deaths by accident in previous years rarely exceeds 1,000. But for 2022 there are 1,552, a very high number. If a good part of the undetermined deaths were also added to those 1,552, the figure would be of extraordinary statistical rarity.
Azaola, who has spent decades investigating the dynamics of violence in the country and the capital, points out that the hypothesis of doctors’ caution, defended by Clark, does not hold up. The academic defends that the problem is methodical. “When I was doing my study, I went to Inegi to ask. They told me that death certificates must meet a series of requirements. For the Inegi to be able to count a homicide, the report must explain, among other things, the mechanism of death,” she argues. “There seems to be a problem in the way the certificates are filled out,” she says.
Although Azaola is cautious, these problems when filling out the certificates point to Incifo, an independent body of the Government of the capital. Does it make sense that well-trained forensic doctors, like those at Incifo, sign more and more death certificates for violent deaths of undetermined intent? Shouldn’t it be the other way around? Shouldn’t technology and experience contribute to a contrary inertia?
Azaola’s allegations are not the only ones. The former director of the National Information Center, David Esparza, who depends on the SESNSP, has also criticized the figures these days. In a couple of messages on Twitter (now . Eduardo Clark announces that in the coming days, the city government will come out to give an explanation of the figures to settle the matter once and for all.
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