In an event that went almost unnoticed amid the dramas and crises that hit Latin America every week, in the last days of February the Cuban Government asked the United Nations for help to address a growing food shortage. The unprecedented cry for help from a regime communist that has always been proud of its social welfare model reflects the terrible economic situation of Cuba.
Affected by the tightening of US restrictions, the decline of national production, a weakened tourism industry after the covid and the indifference of its allies, the island is experiencing its worst days in terms economic since the collapse of the Soviet Unionmore than three decades ago.
“I think what
more missing today
It is food, fuel, electricity or coffee, what is most lacking is
the hope”.
After a series of blackouts, people took to the streets last weekend to shout “current and food!”: a rare display of social unrest since the unrest that shook the island in July 2021, and which the regime contained with overwhelming force.
The current economic situation is an enormous challenge for the Cuban Communist Party, which has controlled the life of the nation since Fidel Castro's revolution in 1959. Evidence of this is the search for internal scapegoats and distractions: President Miguel Díaz- Canel announced an unusual investigation against Alejandro Gil Fernández, a long-time ally and friend, for alleged corruption after dismissing him as Minister of Economy. And of course, as far as distractions go, there's always the US embargoCuba's historical excuse in times of economic malaise.
Yes, the embargo is a Cold War anachronism that should have been lifted long ago, but it is not responsible for the island's food shortages: since 2001, Cuba has been able to import food and other agricultural products from the United States, for a sum of more than 7,000 million dollars. And an embargo imposed 62 years ago cannot explain why the island lost at least half a million citizens, about 5 percent of Cuba's total population, between 2021 and 2023. These are young, educated Cubans escaping hunger. , economic mismanagement and political repression.
difficult transition
Beyond the accusations, what we are witnessing is the collapse of the Cuban socialist regime. This transition could take decades. Or it could happen much like the great fan of Cuba, Ernest Hemingway, once wrote of bankruptcies: “first gradually…and then suddenly.”
One thing is clear: the crisis cannot be solved without fundamentally changing the centralized, state-controlled country model, where bureaucrats govern all aspects of public life.
That political change, which must emerge from within Cuban society, threatens the survival of the regime and the future of the revolution, an unacceptable risk for the well-fed old guard that still runs the country. That is the essence of the conflict at the moment.
This situation represents an important test for the region, but also an opportunity. As naive as it may seem, let's imagine a functional and freer Cuba, in which its professionals and highly qualified workforce are able to take advantage of the country's potential, from tourism to agriculture, culture, or even oil. However, the most foreseeable scenario now is one of uncertainty and chaos.
Some U.S. lawmakers might celebrate a sudden collapse of the Cuban regime as a political success. But in the huge hypothetical event that that happens, there is no organized opposition waiting to take control and right the ship. We also do not know what the reaction of the Cuban military would be. As William LeoGrande told me, a long-time Cuba watcher and professor of government at the School of Public Affairs at American University in Washington DC: “The result could be a failed state with mass migration and the establishment of transnational criminal organizations. And that would be a much bigger problem for the United States, a potential disaster.”
For now, Cuba's government is trying to solve its economic problems by implementing a deeply unpopular austerity program that includes raising gasoline prices by more than 500 percent, among other very orthodox measures, in an attempt to close a gaping hole. budget – which is estimated to reach 18.5 percent of GDP – and to contain rampant inflation. He's also looking for new outside help, such as requesting food from the UN, and working to achieve the full recovery of its important tourism industry.
There is a possibility that an increase in local production that allows for greater exports, a recovery in remittances and a series of other factors will be able to reactivate the economy and allow the Government to survive the immediate effects of the crisis, according to LeoGrande, But that would be the best scenario for a system that has already passed its expiration date.
It is possible that old-school Latin American leftists, such as the Brazilian Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the Mexican Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the Colombian Gustavo Petro and, of course, the Venezuelan Nicolás Maduro still turns to Cuba in search of ideological inspiration. But, as other commentators have noted, younger Latin Americans are, at best, indifferent.
Furthermore, despite all the speculation about Cuba's strategic relations with Russia and China (Díaz-Canel visited both nations in 2022), the reality is that, beyond their geopolitical alignment and rivalry against the United States, these nations show themselves reluctant to finance a Government with a systemic track record of default on your debt.
out of focus
On the other hand, while the United States prepares to elect a president in November, Cuba also appears buried at the bottom of Uncle Sam's strategic priorities (aside from dealing with the influx of Cubans on the southwest border). Given the number of other geopolitical issues simmering and the lack of desire to engage with the Cuban regime after its brutal 2021 crackdown, the Biden administration's reluctance is understandable. However, the United States – like Latin America and the rest of the world – has powerful reasons so as not to give up imagining a modern Cuba and prepare for a transition, whether difficult or smooth.
More efforts must be made to promote ties with Cuba's nascent private sector, which is emerging following the legalization of smaller businesses in 2021 and which, by some estimates, already employs around 35 percent of the island's workforce. This increases commercial activity and strengthens the country's economic interdependence.
But, as John Kavulich, president of the US-Cuba Economic and Trade Council, told me, this strategy involves risks for the regime: “When businessmen are allowed to make money, it begins to become very visible that there are rich people in Cuba and people who are not. “How successful can someone be before the government decides to take everything away from them?”
Still, Kavulich is pushing for the U.S. Embassy to approve a list of small Cuban companies that Americans could do business with, fostering business relationships within existing regulations and prohibitions, even as the current political freeze with the United States continues. .
It seems like it was a while ago century when President Barack Obama visited the island – the first American president to do so in 88 years – and that the Rolling Stones played for half a million Cubans in the Sports City of Havana. However, that was just 2016, showing that things can change quickly on both sides of the Florida Straits.
As the great Cuban writer Leonardo Padura recently said to a Brazilian media: “I think that what is most lacking today is not food, fuel, electricity or coffee, what is lacking most is hope.” And that may remain scarce under the current Government. But, for the sake of the people of Cuba, their neighbors should help keep hope alive.
In an event that went almost unnoticed amid the dramas and crises that hit Latin America every week, in the last days of February the Cuban Government asked the United Nations for help to address a growing food shortage. The unprecedented cry for help from a communist regime which has always been proud of its social welfare model reflects Cuba's terrible economic situation.
JOHN PAUL SPINETTO
BLOOMBERG
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