To Washington a total of 120 European and American politicians, civil servants, business leaders and journalists arrived at the hotel two weeks ago To the Bilderberg meeting. The meeting had to be postponed for two years due to the pandemic. Now the opportunity came at an exceptionally interesting time, as Finland and Sweden had submitted their NATO application only a couple of weeks earlier.
I attended this closed meeting for the first time. I set out to find out what the security situation in Finland looks like from the world. Ukraine, Russia and NATO, among others, had the opportunity on the discussion list. The organizers published it together list of participants with at the beginning of the meeting. Finland was also attended by Prime Minister Sanna Marin (SD) and Erkki Liikanen, former Governor of the Bank of Finland.
At the meeting the so-called Chatham House rule was followed, meaning that participants could make use of the information they received, but in such a way that the speaker or his organization did not appear in the context. The rule has its pros and cons. The lack of transparency creates an unnecessarily secretive impression around the meeting. On the other hand, people in significant leadership positions feel they can talk about things more directly and more broadly than at public events.
I discussed the problem created by Turkey with several dozen experts. Only one of them thought it possible that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan would eventually use the veto to block Finland’s and Sweden’s NATO membership. Rather, Turkey was seen as building pressure towards the NATO summit in Madrid at the end of June. The situation would hardly be resolved then.
“It can take weeks or even thirteen months here, as it took in the NATO process in northern Macedonia,” one of the participants estimated.
The message was reassuring to Finland and Sweden. If Turkey really tried to prevent the enlargement of the military alliance, it would be a crisis that would shake the very existence of NATO and its open door policy. That would not be the case with the big NATO countries, especially right now. So Erdoğan is writing a play for a Turkish home audience in which he tries to patch up his weakened support before next summer’s election. The situation will be resolved, but it may take some time.
To Finland there are hardly any serious military security risks during the accession negotiations. Russia may try to carry out hybrid operations and, for example, violate Finnish airspace, but it hardly has the desire or ability to take larger actions for the time being, estimates said.
Reflections on the duration of the war were quite uncertain and differed greatly. According to the gloomiest views, even a possible ceasefire or peace process will not provide a solution. Russia, led by President Vladimir Putin, could gather militarily and try to recapture the whole of Ukraine in a few years.
Annual Bilderberg meetings began in the midst of the Cold War in 1954, when a group of politicians and business leaders wanted to strengthen cooperation between Western Europe and the United States. Because of the war of aggression in Russia, the talks could now be more reminiscent of the meetings during which the Soviet Union still existed and the Iron Curtain divided Central Europe in two.
The weights were very concerned about both the war and its effects on the world food situation, among other things. However, Finland was judged to be doing well in the current difficult situation. It was noteworthy that many participants described the time of Finland’s non-alignment as a success.
“Finland did not compromise on its defense during the Cold War or in the decades that followed. That is why Russia does not threaten you now, nor in the future as a member of NATO, ”one participant summed up.
The author is the corresponding editor-in-chief of Helsingin Sanomat.
#Columns #situation #Finland #Bilderberg #meeting
