If Finland applied for membership in the military alliance, it would be much better to do so together with Sweden. Finland’s position as a peripheral state would be emphasized with all its disadvantages if the Nordic countries were not able to form a common group within NATO.
Middle East there is one recurring feature of the seemingly endless conflict that is helping Israel and the Palestinian experts to wake up. It is silence. When the parties are silent, most progress takes place behind the scenes.
Unfortunately, the war in Ukraine may be in its infancy. There is no clear idea of the final goals of the Russian president. What is certain, however, is that the war will end at some point.
Europe’s security arrangements are being reformed rapidly, but work will continue for a long time after the war.
Last The latter part of the week was a historical reminder to Finland of the existence of a fast band. Finland’s foreign and security policy leadership negotiated with both the United States and Sweden to increase security. The discussions between Sauli Niinistö and Joe Biden were obviously aimed at a bilateral agreement that would provide a sufficient amount of additional security for Finland in an acute situation. This is because the military alliance NATO does not have a rapid mechanism to provide temporary security guarantees.
From the White House, the presidents called Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson, who knew in advance to wait for a call. Now it was Niinistö’s turn to sit by the fireplace, because in bilateral relations Sweden has been considerably ahead of Finland since the Cold War. These days, Finland is catching up with Sweden in transatlantic security relations.
The situation will become much more complicated as we begin to look at promoting Finland’s security in the longer term. It may sound surprising, but the United States is not driving Finland to NATO at a rapid pace right now. Rather, Washington wants to reassure and buy time for possible NATO enlargement at a later date through swift bilateral action.
The aim is to avoid an escalation of the crisis outside Ukraine in a situation where Russia does not pose an immediate military threat to Finland and Sweden. In addition, the NATO membership process requires the approval of the parliaments of all 30 member states. Applying for active starters in a war of aggression would expose the process to a wide range of surprises, information influences, and, most annoyingly, a pawn in peace talks. Timing is now a core issue in shaping Finland’s longer-term security solution.
When it is possible to make an assessment in a cool, cool view of the other Nordic countries as well. In the coming weeks and months, it will be very important to further intensify co-operation, especially with Sweden and Norway, in addition to Finland being active in the direction of the United States and the European Union.
If Finland applied for membership in the military alliance, it would be much better to do so together with Sweden. According to more and more experts, Finland’s position as a peripheral state with all its disadvantages would be emphasized if the Nordic countries were not able to form a common group within NATO. The matter is not insignificant, as Russia, regardless of its leader, will always have a strong security interest in protecting its second largest city, St. Petersburg, at the bottom of the narrow Gulf of Finland.
Where is Sweden currently going? The war in Ukraine has tested the Swedish people’s sense of security. The Swedish Social Democratic prime minister is known to be concerned about Russia’s reactions if Sweden joins NATO. On the other hand, he is known to be particularly concerned about the security of Gotland if Sweden were excluded from the alliance.
Andersson said publicly on Tuesday that if Sweden now decided to apply for NATO membership, it would destabilize the region and create tensions. So the message was practically the same as how the United States sees it behind the scenes. The issue is much more difficult for demars preparing for the September parliamentary elections than for their Finnish party colleagues. Yet Sweden has not turned its back on NATO.
If The United States will be able to offer serious bilateral protection to Finland in the near future, it will act as a quick interim solution and allow time to build a permanent security solution. So to the one who will hopefully be built under silence.
The capabilities of the foreign and security policy leadership will ultimately be measured by whether Finland, together with the other Nordic countries, is able to develop a credible international security solution for the Baltic Sea region.
The author is the corresponding editor-in-chief of Helsingin Sanomat.
#Columns #Timing #core #issue #Finlands #security
