The extraordinary military exercises between Russia and Belarus may be related to Russia’s efforts to increase pressure on Ukraine’s borders. It is also necessary to be prepared for the fact that at least some of the troops are coming to settle in Belarus.
From Helsinki is a shorter trip to Minsk than to Rovaniemi.
Thus, the blatant oppression and persecution begun by the dictator Alexander Lukashenko, who has been injured by his subjects, is taking place in our own neighborhood. So close that one cannot look away properly with any excuse.
The geopolitical consequences of Lukashenko’s actions are getting even closer. They are not foreign news.
That is why the influx of Russian troops into extraordinary joint military exercises in Belarus is now being monitored so closely. They may be related to Russia’s efforts to increase pressure on Ukraine’s borders, but it is also necessary to be prepared for the fact that at least some of the troops are coming to settle in the house. If that happens, the security situation in the entire Baltic Sea region will swing into a new position.
To the west that would be the ultimate failure of its policy towards Belarus.
Despite the beautiful speeches, the independence of Belarus has been more important to the West than the country’s democracy.
The line became mainstream in Western politics in the spring of 2014, when Russia occupied Crimea and began hostilities in eastern Ukraine. There was public speculation that Russia would try to do something in Narva or Eastern Latvia as well, but there were fears in the chambers of power that Russia would persuade Lukashenko to allow bases for Russian combat forces in Belarus.
They would be a threat to the West, as they would make it easier for Russia to isolate the Baltics from the rest of the EU and NATO. At worst, Russia could return nuclear weapons to Belarus.
The bases have not come because Lukashenko has understood that they are undermining Belarus’ sovereignty and his own position. Thus, the interests of the West and Lukashenko converged, so the West began to increase the room for maneuver of Belarus in the West.
I had to hold my nose in it a bit, but that’s the way international politics is. In addition, it had been concluded in the same chambers that a democratic overthrow in Belarus would lead to Russian intervention.
Belarus the harsh fate is that Russia considers it important for its security. Even the paranoia of President Vladimir Putin’s power plays a big role in this, but there is also an old military doctrine behind it, which does not seem to have been much affected by the development of military technology.
Regardless of its governance model, Russia has wanted to protect its core areas by building buffers on other countries. When Russia lost Eastern Central Europe at the end of the Cold War, Belarus became a central part of the buffer.
In addition, Belarus is located in the lowlands from northern France to western Russia, along which armies have always marched from west to east and east to west. For Russia, Belarus is both part of the protective wall and a bridgehead from which to move forward.
Before it is speculated that Russia is currently taking over Belarus, so it is a good idea to maintain reservations. Russia is doing and talking a lot now, and it is not yet known how much is involved in just wanting to get attention.
Yet Moscow has seen the most important “controlled” transfer of power in Belarus since the post-Lukashenko era. As part of that, Russia has put pressure on Lukashenko to change the constitution. Last autumn, actors close to the Kremlin also began to suggest that permanent Russian troops should finally be available to Belarus in order for relations to be at a “stable” and “understandable” level.
There is room for speech in the world, but the message still sounds sad in a situation where the Kremlin is talking about self-confidence and sending out its demand lists. It is also not worth placing too much weight on the fact that the bases run counter to the latest list sent by Russia on Tuesday.
Belarusians tried in the summer of 2020 to get only what is considered natural here 700 kilometers away. The right to influence their affairs.
The attempt was unsuccessful, as is sometimes the case. This is a harsh neighborhood for small nations.
But the effort has also been successful here. The Belarusians know that, and knowledge and hope have not been cut off from them.
The author is the editorial editor of HS
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