Russian leader Vladimir Putin and the Russian elite were unprepared for the consequences of the attack on Ukraine. They did not understand how democratic societies work.
Democratic societies look controversial easily. There is a constant china about all sorts of little things, policymakers have to consider laws that restrict their activities, and politicians are not ready for tough solutions.
This is also the view of Russian leader Vladimir Putin, who openly despises democracy. The Russian elite has long laughed at the repressive tolerance of the West. For it, the West has been a soft bastard that may speak harshly, but whose houses, islands, values, passports, lawyers, and former prime ministers are in trade. The fragmented EU has been a joke to the elite, so the High Representatives from Brussels to Moscow may have been humiliated.
More important to the elite has been the power that has guaranteed them status and wealth under Putin.
Putin has justified its attack on Ukraine last week by claiming that the US – backed Nazi junta, which is developing a nuclear weapon, is in power in Ukraine. That is why Putin announced the goals of disarming Ukraine and cleansing them of the Nazis.
Such a speech is, of course, misleading, but Putin seems to believe at least a substantial part of it. His speeches have long shown a mixture of bitterness and an experience of injustice over the loss of the empire, a demand to be treated as a privileged superpower, and an obsessive suspicion of a U.S. project to change the Russian leadership. Recently, there has been a growing tone in the rhetoric that the East Slavs belong to one country and that Ukraine and Belarus are therefore not real countries.
According to estimates oozing from Moscow, Putin decided to attack to destroy the security threats he believed would unite the “Russian” countries and create an entity of Russia, Ukraine, and Belarus that the United States and Russia must take into account. At least he thought Russia was now strong enough to redraw its borders and stop Ukraine’s westward trend.
The consequences were not prepared for because Putin does not understand democratic societies. He did not realize that the constant bickering and twisting despised by the Russian elite is possible because there is a broad consensus on fundamental issues in democracies.
Thus, the rapid grouping of Ukrainians who previously seemed contentious in the defense surprised the Kremlin. It did not matter to the Ukrainians whether they had voted for Volodymyr Zelensky in the last election or how desperate the fight seemed. They wanted to defend not only their country but also their freedom.
Even after a little initial stiffness, the EU, mocked by Russia, was able to act firmly. When the EU finally realized the threat posed by Putin’s Russia, it was ready to sacrifice its own economic interests and put Russia under a de facto embargo. This was also forced by the pressure from the citizens.
Civic pressure from power politicians is often overlooked. Putin could not wait for it, because he does not see people as citizens who could have a say in important matters. He didn’t bother to surprise his own elite with an attack either.
Now democratic societies have thus kicked Putin back.
Unfortunately, however, Putin seems to think he has a historic role to play. Then the attack only needs to be intensified and the consequences only endured to the end.
This message is also marked by years of propaganda, which presents the whole war as just some kind of police operation in eastern Ukraine. For the majority, the message is still going through, but for the sake of certainty, the rest of the Chinese will be silenced as well. Russia’s authoritarianism has tightened further in recent years, but now the country is finally becoming a grim police state.
This also seemed to be conceived by those members of the elite who were sent to the Kremlin Hall last Monday to support the recognition of the puppet republics established by Russia in eastern Ukraine. In the hall, they went one by one to inform the distant dictator that they agreed.
Many realized that they were no longer safe. You saw it in your face.
The author is the editorial editor of HS.
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