In full tension over the war in Ukraine, the regime holds the annual meeting of its organic Parliament, where Prime Minister Li Keqiang sets economic growth “around 5.5 percent”
In the midst of the war in Ukraine, this Saturday the National People’s Assembly, the annual meeting of the organic Parliament of China, started in Beijing. If it were not for the Communist Party Congress to be held in the fall, in which President Xi Jinping is expected to remain in power, it would be the most important political event of the year in China, since the regime sets its main objectives economic and social.
Before the almost 3,000 deputies gathered in the Great Hall of the People, the Prime Minister, Li Keqiang, has set a growth forecast for the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) “around 5.5 percent.” Although the Chinese economy grew by 8.1 percent last year, the slowdown by half during the second half and the impact of the drastic measures against the outbreaks of the coronavirus invite more caution this time.
As Li Keqiang read in his government report, China is facing a “volatile, serious and uncertain” external climate due to the triple pressure of “contraction in demand, the disruption of supply chains and the weakening of expectations”. As usual in its economic plans, the goal is to create eleven million urban jobs per year, maintaining an official unemployment rate “within 5.5 percent”, inflation of 0.9 percent and a price index to the consumption “about 3 percent.”
Due to the international tension unleashed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, another of the most anticipated data this year was that of military spending, which will rise 7.1 percent to 1.45 trillion yuan (210,000 million euros). ). This is an increase three tenths higher than last year and five compared to 2020, when they experienced their lowest rise since 1989, reduced by the impact of the coronavirus.
Since 2016, China has maintained a single-digit increase in the military budget, far from increases of up to 18 percent recorded more than a decade ago. Between 2010 and 2019, its average growth was 9.1 percent and, officially, the Defense item represents only 1.77 percent of GDP, below the United States (3.74 percent), Russia and the overall mean. But many experts suspect that China’s military spending is up to 40 to 50 percent higher because these figures do not include key programs such as technology or space.
In his speech, the prime minister called on the People’s Liberation Army to “deepen comprehensive preparation for combat”, ordering it “to carry out its military struggle in a resolute and flexible manner” to defend territorial sovereignty and national security. China is thus on alert in an increasingly tense international climate due to the war against Ukraine launched by Russia, which Beijing has not condemned and even avoids calling an “invasion” because propaganda defines Putin as one of the president’s “best friends”. Xi Jinping.
In this increasingly unsettled scenario and with Russia isolated by Western sanctions, Beijing has numerous fronts open with its neighbors, ranging from claiming Taiwan to territorial disputes with Japan, India and in the South Sea of China. Waiting for Beijing to clarify its diplomatic ambiguity about the war in Ukraine, some fear that it will even copy Putin’s example to conquer the island of Taiwan. But it seems unlikely in view of the unanimous international condemnation of Russia and the isolation that seeks to suffocate its economy. In addition, Xi Jinping has the 20th Congress of the Communist Party on the horizon, which will surely be held in October, and the last thing that interests him now is more instability apart from the one already caused by war.
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