China posts 5.4% growth in the fourth quarter of 2024 and nails its annual goal

The National Statistics Office (ONE) this morning organized a press conference to disseminate the socioeconomic portrait of the country. Together with the PIB, the commissioner of the organization, Kang Yihas shared the annual calculations of other metrics, evidence of the pressing structural imbalances of the Chinese model.

None is as evident as the demographic crisis. In 2024, the Chinese population fell for the third consecutive year, losing 1.39 million people up to 1,408 million. The rebound in births – the first in a decade – to 9.54 million from 9.02 in 2023, a precedent that constituted the lowest mark in the historical series since records began in 1949, was not enough.

Retail sales, a reflection of consumption, recorded a timid rise in 3.5% annuallyfar from industrial production that jumped 5.8%. The difference between these two figures illustrates the vaunted excess capacity of the Chinese industry, which translates into higher remittances abroad with its consequent geopolitical tensions, motivated both by the hoarding of sensitive industries – see electric vehicles – and by the lack of reciprocity in terms of market access. The mathematics, in fact, supports: according to customs records, Chinese exports increased by 5.9% annually in 2024 up to 25.45 trillion yuan (3.37 trillion euros), a new historical record.

He real estate sector and its spiral of debt constitutes another threatening area, although the ONE analysis shows a stabilization of prices. Among a sample of 70 large and medium-sized cities, December left monthly increases in the costs of new housing for 23 of them compared to 17 in December, showing an average increase of 0.2%.

The urban unemployment survey – which does not count large masses of migrant workers – closed the year at 5.1%one tenth less than in 2023; and in the 16.1% for those under 25 years of agefour tenths of a percentage point below the previous month in its fourth consecutive drop.

Doubts and dangers

China, evaluated and evaluator, thus closes the year with its duties supposedly done. Other readings, however, are less flattering. A report published at the end of December by the American think tank Rhodium Group estimated that the Chinese economy would have actually grown between 2.4 and 2.8%influencing the difference between the stability of official figures and the stimuli activated in the second semester.

“In general terms, the national economy remained stable and advanced steadily in 2024,” he noted today. Kang Yi. “However, we must be aware that the adverse effects caused by the external environment are increasing.” The ONE commissioner thus made a veiled reference to the imminent arrival of Donald Trump to the White House and the possible outbreak of a second trade war between the two powers, with tariffs of up to 60%. The prospect of new restrictions, in fact, has encouraged advance transactionswhich together with the stimuli has boosted economic activity this last quarter.

“Domestic demand is insufficient, some companies have difficulties in production and operation, and the economy still faces challenges,” he warned. Kang. “We must implement more proactive and effective macroeconomic policies, expand domestic demand, promote integrated advances in technological and industrial innovation, stabilize market expectations, and boost domestic vitality to ensure continued economic recovery and development.”

The prophecies, meanwhile, are renewed to stay ahead again. “We expect growth to slow further in 2025 as a whole,” he predicts. Zichun Huangan economist at Capital Economics, in a report released after the annual data was released, “as Trump is likely to soon follow through on his tariff threats and persistent structural imbalances still weigh on the economy.”