03/29/2024 – 11:52
The messages delivered by the Chinese government to global political and economic leaders, gathered at the Boao Forum for Asia, had a more optimistic tone about the economy than that normally expressed by foreign economists.
Among them were findings such as: China's economy is advancing strongly; achieving this year's growth target will be very easy; The problem of the global economy is not the excess of cheap Chinese products reaching other markets, but rather insufficient external demand.
There were only limited references to the crisis in China's real estate sector. Instead, the general message was that any problems facing the country will just be “bumps in the road” and that the future of the global economy is inevitably turning toward China and Asia, while turning away from the U.S.-led West. . During the event, Chinese authorities reinforced that all countries “will be welcome to join China's development train”, which will focus on technology, innovation and green transition in the coming years.
The optimistic tone contrasts with the more pessimistic view of some economists about the prospects for China, who point to concerns about the effects of the real estate sector crisis on economic growth and the lack of government stimulus to boost domestic consumption. In the longer term, there are also fears about demographic challenges in China from a shrinking population and growing antagonism with the US and Western allies.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), for example, expects China's growth to slow to around 3.4% before the end of the decade, compared with around 5% today and close to 8% in the decade before the pandemic. . Vice president of the China Center for International Economic Exchanges and former IMF official, Zhu Min points out that China needs to get used to slower growth as the economy matures.
Foreign economists also fear that China is once again leaning too heavily on investment and exports in its effort to reignite faster growth. This is generating resistance and caution from foreign governments, who see a glut of Chinese products flooding their domestic markets.
However, at the forum in Boao itself, some authorities said that the country is not investing enough. “It is essential to maintain a certain intensity to offset the decline in investment caused by the real estate sector and allow stimulus to contribute more to this year's growth,” said Liu Qiao, dean of Peking University's Guanghua School of Management.
While some officials criticized protectionist measures, others offered solutions, encouraging Chinese factories to invest in Mexico and Southeast Asia to circumvent Western tariffs or to look beyond Western markets to the growing consumer markets of the developing world. Attendees crowded into sessions to hear about China's progress in artificial intelligence (AI), green technology vehicles and other areas in which it is challenging the West. Source: Dow Jones Newswires.
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