Chihuahua— The Center for Public Finance Studies of the Chamber of Deputies recognized the sustainable debt of the entity, with a downward trend in relation to the Gross Domestic Product of Chihuahua (GDP) of 5.6%, state income (57.1%) and federal participations (173%), with shortening of maturity terms (15.4 years) and improvement in average interest rates (10.2%), in the last ten years.
However, with data from the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit, it warns that the position in the alert system remains one of observation, with a growing balance since 2014, in which the State Government predominates in debt over the rest of the accredited, such as the municipalities, and the per capita debt is the second at the national level, only surpassed by Nuevo León.
The document, dated February of this year, includes the financial obligations contracted by the state government, municipal governments and public entities of both levels of government.
It establishes that in terms of its proportion with respect to the State Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Chihuahua’s debt “shows a generally downward trend during the analysis period, with a maximum level of 9.7 percent in 2016 and a minimum of 5.6 percent in the third quarter of 2023. Likewise, this amount is lower than the level observed in 2022, which was 5.8 percent.”
Although the decline in this indicator during the reference period is commendable, the analysis says, “Chihuahua presents the highest level among all federal entities in the third quarter of 2023, above the subnational average of 2.4 percent as a proportion of GDP.”
As for debt as a proportion of total income, it shows a downward trend with 82.6 percent in 2014 until reaching a minimum level of 57.1 percent in the third quarter of 2023, lower than the value observed in 2022 (64.2%) by 7.1 percentage points.
However, the document explains, “the significant decreases” that Chihuahua has shown in this indicator are “still much higher than the subnational average of 21.9 percent,” ranking second nationally, preceded by Nuevo León with 75.3%.
As a percentage of federal participation income (Branch 28), it shows a generally downward trend, starting at 242.0 percent in 2014 and decreasing almost uninterruptedly until reaching a minimum of 137.3 percent in the third quarter of 2023, a level 18.5 percentage points lower than that observed in 2022.
However, the significant decreases in the level of this indicator in the third quarter of 2023 in the case of Chihuahua are higher than the subnational average of 50.0 percent.
In relation to the rest of the states of the Republic, Chihuahua is in second place in terms of this indicator, below Nuevo León (167.3%), but above Quintana Roo and Coahuila, with 122.5% and 120.6%, respectively.
The average maturity periods generally show a downward trend, with a maximum level of 19.5 years in 2015 and a minimum level of 15.4 years in the third quarter of 2023, although higher than the subnational average of 12.5 years.
Chihuahua ranks 10th in this indicator, with a higher level than that of the State of Mexico (15.1 years) and Veracruz (14.9 years).
The study shows that the allocation of shares for debt repayment reached 84.1 percent in 2015, reaching 54.3 percent from 2017 to 2019, and reaching 60.2 percent in the third quarter of 2023, above the subnational average of 55.8 percent, ranking 15th nationally in this indicator.
Despite these positive indicators in debt management, the Center for Public Finance Studies establishes that it shows an increasing trend during the analysis period, going from 41 thousand 894.3 million pesos in 2014 to 51 thousand 477.9 million pesos in the third quarter of 2023.
The amount is 596.5 million pesos higher than that registered in the fourth quarter of 2022, which was 50,881.3 million; as of the third quarter of 2023, Chihuahua ranked fourth nationwide.
The document also notes that from 2014 to 2022 there is a trend towards “the almost total predominance of the State Government debt over the rest of the borrowers”; in 2014 it was 96.5 percent until reaching 95.3 percent in 2023.
Regarding creditors, between 2014 and 2018, multiple banks accounted for between 48.0 and 58.0 percent and stock issues, between 43.0 and 36.0 percent; from 2019 until the third quarter of 2023, development banks appeared on the scene with 30 percent, multiple banks with 40 percent and stock issues with 30 percent.
In per capita terms, Chihuahua’s debt has evolved from 2014 and 2015, with 11,500 pesos per person, to the third quarter of 2023 with 13,188.9 pesos per person, higher than the subnational average, which was 4,724.8 pesos per person, placing the entity in second place, surpassed by Nuevo León with 17,241.9 pesos per person.
According to the study, average interest rates have been on the rise from 2014 to 2018, a period in which they rose from 5.8 to 8.7 percent; they decreased from 2019 to 2020 to 3.7 percent, and then increased to 10.2 percent in the third quarter of 2023; the rate is 1.6 percentage points lower than the subnational average of 11.8 percent.
Chihuahua ranks 30th among the states of the Mexican Republic, being surpassed by Colima and Nuevo León, with 11% and 10.3%, respectively.
The Center for Studies concludes that as of the third quarter of 2023, Chihuahua presented a sustainable level of indebtedness, according to the results of the evaluation of the Alert System, stipulated in the Law of Financial Discipline of the Federative Entities and Municipalities; however, it remains under observation, and may incur additional indebtedness equivalent to 5.0 percent of its freely available income.
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