The economies of the Region of Murcia, the Balearic Islands, the Canary Islands and Castilla y León will lead growth in Spain this year 2024, with growth rates in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) equal to or greater than 3.1 percent, according to estimates published this Tuesday by the BBVA Research research services.
Specifically, BBVA Research’s ‘Regional Observatory’, corresponding to the third quarter of 2024, estimates that the economy of the Region of Murcia will grow by 3.4 percent this year, while the GDP of Balearic Islands, Canary Islands and Castilla y León will increase by 3.1 percent.
In total, there are eight regions that will grow above the national average (2.9 percent). Apart from the four already mentioned, the economies of Aragon, Catalonia, the Valencian Community and the Community of Madrid will also grow more than the average, 3 percent specifically. Furthermore, GDP in Galicia is expected to increase at the same rate as in Spain as a whole (2.9 percent), reports Ep.
According to BBVA Research experts, the foreign sector and, above all, exports of services, both tourist and non-tourist, continue to support economic activity in 2024. This leads to them being the communities with the greatest weight in foreign tourism and exports. of non-tourist services that are leading growth this year. In this group are the Balearic and Canary Islands (3.1 percent), and Catalonia, the Community of Madrid (3 percent) and the Valencian Community (3 percent).
In addition, sales of goods abroad are supporting the progress of the economy in Castilla y León (3.1 percent), Aragón (3 percent) and Galicia (2.9 percent). For its part, the increase in employment in the public sector joins the good performance of the export sector in Murcia (3.4 percent) and allows it to lead the regional GDP growth ranking this year.
The document, however, worsens the EPA annual employment generation forecasts for Castilla y León, which it places at 0.6 for 2024, and at 0.8 for 2025, when in the previous quarter it assured that it would be at 1.2 percent both exercises. The evolution of employment for Spain as a whole would be much better, with increases of 2.5 and 2.1 percent, in 2024 and 2025.
2.2% in 2025
In 2025, BBVA Research maintains the perspective of high GDP growth in the Spanish economy (2.4 percent), although lower than that observed in 2024.
The expected strong increase in investment due to the drop in interest rates and the increase in sales abroad supported by greater activity in Europe shifts growth towards some Autonomous Communities in the north, particularly towards those that had not yet recovered dynamism.
Specifically, the BBVA Research research service estimates that the Basque Country and Navarra (2.8 percent) and Galicia (2.5 percent) will grow more than the average. On the other hand, after the industrial improvement between 2023 and 2024, in Aragón (2.4 percent) and Castilla y León (2.2 percent) The push could be in line with or be lower than that of the national group as a whole, as in La Rioja (2.4 percent) and Asturias and Cantabria (2.1 percent).
Furthermore, the progressive normalization of the climatological situation will allow the regions with the greatest weight in the agricultural sector to be among the most dynamic in 2025: Andalusia, Castilla-La Mancha, Extremadura and Murcia could grow by 2.7 percent.
Although with less impetus than in previous years, tourism will continue to boost the economy. This factor, added to the strong increase in investment and exports, will have a positive impact in Catalonia (2.6 percent) and, to a lesser extent, in Madrid (2.4 percent) and the Valencian Community (2.3 percent).
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