Carnival will have a heat wave and rain; see weather forecast

The National Institute of Meteorology (Inmet) predicts rain for the carnival period, from Saturday (10) to Tuesday (13), in practically the entire country, but with varying intensities in each region.

For the second day of parades by the samba schools of the Grupo Especial de São Paulo, this Saturday, and the two days of parades at Marquês de Sapucaí, in Rio de Janeiro, respectively Sunday (11) and Monday (12), the time must be firm. On Tuesday, the capital of Rio de Janeiro will continue with clear skies, with no rain forecast.

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In São Paulo, on Sunday, the day will be sunny, with muggy weather and temperatures that will reach 34°C, the highest of the long weekend.

Other locations, with a carnival tradition, will have rainy moments. In Salvador, revelers of axé music trios will have to face the possibility of thunderstorms, cloudy skies and showers, which could alleviate the heat with a maximum temperature of 33°C this Saturday.

In Recife and Olinda (PE), temperatures are expected to be high. The peak will be this Saturday: 31°C to warm up the day of those who go to see the Galo da Madrugada, which in 2024, will have a gray crest, at the top of the 28 meters of the sculpture symbol of the carnival in the capital of Pernambuco. For the remaining days, Inmet points out cloudy weather and isolated rain for troça and frevo enthusiasts.

In Belo Horizonte, Diamantina and Ouro Preto, some of the liveliest destinations in Minas Gerais, there is the possibility of isolated and rapid rains and cloudy skies. Revelers will face the street carnival with high temperatures. In the capital of Minas Gerais, for example, thermometers will reach 32°C.

In the center of the country, in Brasília and Goiânia, the recommendation is to go out with galoshes and an umbrella this carnival. The forecast for the federal capital is clouds and rain showers with thunderstorms from Saturday to Monday. On Tuesday, the sun should come out, muggy weather to close the Momo holiday.

Rains

In general, Carnival will be hot in the center to the south of the country; and from the center to the north, there will be more rain.

Inmet meteorologist, Andréa Ramos, considers this rain pattern normal for the season.

“We are in summer. The heat and typical humidity favor rain. February is still a rainy month and we are in the rainiest season. So, it is normal to have these weather conditions, with these constant rains happening in the country.”

In the South, heat, a feeling of stuffiness and thunderstorms will predominate in the coming days, due to a mass of hot air with a gradual increase in humidity.

Until Sunday (11), the heat wave should bring maximum temperatures between 35°C and 40°C, at least, between the north of Rio Grande do Sul and parts of Santa Catarina and Paraná, areas with a predominance of sun during the day.

At the end of Monday and throughout Tuesday, a cold front moves through the state of Rio Grande do Sul, helping to intensify instability and reduce temperatures in most areas of southern Brazil.

The heat, high air humidity and winds are also expected to cause instability and rain, especially in the Center-North of Brazil, both on Saturday and Sunday.

The main area is concentrated between Mato Grosso, Goiás, Pará, Tocantins, Maranhão, Piauí, in addition to the west of Bahia, in the Espírito Santo mountains and north of Rio de Janeiro. In the North Region, specifically, in Amazonas.

Inmet meteorologist, Olívio Batista, explains the instability in this region. “We may have severity and even some volumes in areas in the north, east and northeast of Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo, in addition to the south and coast of the state of Bahia. It's been raining there for the last few days. The ground is soaked and river levels are still high. So, any rain in that region could cause some impact, including in areas close to the Bahian recôncavo.”

On Carnival Monday and Tuesday, the rain maps will not have many changes compared to the weekend. However, rainfall volumes should be greater in the interior and are concentrated in areas of Goiás and Mato Grosso. In Pará and Rondônia, Inmet warns that rainfall volumes could exceed 80 mm to 100 mm per day.

Rain accumulation will also be significant in the last two days of Carnival in the area close to the coast of Pará, in Amapá and up to the northern part of Maranhão, coast of Piauí and Ceará.

According to Andréa Ramos, the El Niño phenomenon still has a strong influence on the Brazilian summer, as it warms the waters of the Atlantic Ocean.

“El Niño is still very intense. In January, it provided, once again, that most critical month. But, when it comes to February, the intensity of El Niño should decrease. From now on, it begins to decrease to such a point that it should end in autumn, in mid-May, when it enters a neutral phase, when there is no influence from El Niño or La Niña”, concludes the meteorologist.

Weather forecasts and weather warnings are published daily on the app and in Inmet social networks. Interested parties can also seek the forecast for a specific city on the institute portal.