Russia had been waiting all Tuesday evening for it, but it was not until early Wednesday morning that Vladimir Putin’s announced TV speech was finally broadcast.
The Russian president sat crookedly behind his desk, leaning heavily on his left arm, as if his back was hurting again. But unlike during his aggressive speeches surrounding the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, Putin showed no excitement or emotion — despite the seriousness of the decision he announced: the “partial mobilization” and forcible conscription of Russian civilians into the military.
In a fatherly tone, the Russian president tried to ease the pain: The decision only affects reservists with “certain military job training” and “relevant experience” – probably referring to Putin’s previous combat experience at the front, such as in Syria.
Also read: With partial mobilization, fear of Russians becomes reality
The move, Putin said, was “fully justified in light of the threats we face.” In describing those threats, however, the Russian president did not get much further than announcing that the “front line is more than a thousand kilometers long” and new, savage accusations against Western government leaders, who, according to Putin, are not only out for destruction. of Russia, but would even speak openly about the use of nuclear weapons.
Weapons of Destruction
Putin was not afraid to threaten again with nuclear retaliation. Russia has “weapons of destruction” that are “more modern than NATO’s” and will not hesitate to deploy them if necessary, the president said: “That is not a bluff”. That sounded menacing, but also seemed primarily intended as a smokescreen for the real reason for Putin’s mobilization decision: the enormous shortage of manpower of the Russian army.
The force with which Putin invaded Ukraine at the end of February, on paper, numbered almost 190,000 men – professional soldiers who voluntarily took part in the conflict. In reality, many units were far from being up to strength and sometimes conscripts had to be forced to fight with them.
Putin was not afraid to threaten again with nuclear retaliation
This already understaffed invasion force has suffered massive losses over the past seven months. In an explanation of the mobilization decision, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoygu spoke of 5,937 dead on Wednesday, but that number is almost certainly far too low: the Ukrainian General Staff reported more than 55,000 Russian soldiers killed on Wednesday. The number of injured, usually a factor of two to three higher, must still be added. No wonder, then, that an enormous number of Russian reservists will already be called up: 300,000 men. Defense Minister Shoygu confirmed that the Kremlin is mainly looking for ex-servicemen with “combat experience” – experienced former professional soldiers, with whom the empty combat units in Ukraine can be filled as quickly as possible. But it doesn’t have to stop there. Lawyers who studied Presidential Decree No. 647 on “Partial Mobilization” noted that the text makes it possible to summon all Russian (male) military-age citizens – excluding the sick and detainees. Moreover, point 7 of the decree has not been made public.
Possibly more recruits
According to Putin’s spokesman Dmitri Peskov, this talks about the number of 300,000 reservists to be called up, but he did not want to give further details. So it could possibly be more recruits, if that turns out to be necessary. During his presentation, Shoigu said without batting an eyelid that the total reserve of the Russian armed forces is 25 million men.
However, the mobilization will not have direct consequences on the battlefield. It will take at least a few weeks before the first drafted soldiers can enter the combat units. In any case, the combat power of the mobilized soldiers will be lower than the volunteers with whom Putin started the war. Among the fallen in recent months were a striking number of officers, who are difficult to replace.
Steel helmets from the Soviet era
The question is also to what extent Russia is able to provide sufficient equipment and armaments. Ancient T-62 tanks have now been spotted at the front and the recruited soldiers from the Russian-occupied ‘People’s Republics’ of Donetsk and Luhansk often have to make do with Soviet-era steel helmets, which offer little protection against shrapnel.
The Russian mobilization, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said on Wednesday, is a sign that Putin’s invasion is “failing.” However, the Russian president has not yet reached that conclusion. With the referendums announced on Tuesday in the Russian-occupied regions on joining the Russian Federation – nobody has any illusions about the outcome – the Russian president is drawing a line in the sand: the mobilized soldiers will soon defend the new ‘homeland’.
Quantity
In Russia’s military past, quantity has always been more important than quality, Putin knows, and victory was often forced with willpower and perseverance. In 1812, the Russians lost the battle of Borodino, but won the war against Napoleon. After a series of catastrophic defeats in 1941, the Red Army turned the tide at Stalingrad in 1942. Even now, Putin is counting on the endurance of his armed forces – and on the iron fist of his police and security services, who have to keep the home front under control.
Dozens of arrests were made during anti-war demonstrations in several Russian cities on Wednesday evening. Perhaps that is just the beginning.
Also read: Putin speech leads to panic: ‘How do I get an exemption for the army?’
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