02/01/2024 – 8:40
The Business Confidence Index (ICE) fell 0.6 points in December compared to November, the fourth consecutive drop, to 91.2 points, the lowest level since last April, the Fundação Getulio Vargas (FGV) reported this Tuesday, 2nd. . In quarterly moving averages, the index fell 0.9 points in December.
“Business confidence ends 2023 at a level very similar to that of 2022, suggesting little progress throughout the year. The results of the last quarter show that there is a slight improvement in the perception of the present moment, but with more caution in relation to expectations for the coming months. The pace of confidence in 2024 still remains uncertain, depending on the continued improvement of the macroeconomic environment and the resumption of some key activities, such as services, which have reported worsening in their latest assessments”, assessed Rodolpho Tobler, economist at the Brazilian Institute of FGV Economy (Ibre/FGV), in an official note.
The Business Confidence Index brings together survey data from Industry, Services, Commerce and Construction. The calculation takes into account the weights proportional to the participation in the economy of the sectors investigated, based on information extracted from the annual structural surveys of the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). According to FGV, the objective is for the ICE to allow a more consistent assessment of the pace of economic activity.
The Current Business Situation Index (ISA-E) rose 0.3 points in December compared to November, to 95.8 points. The Expectations Index (IE-E) increased 0.3 points, to 88.5 points.
Among expectations, the Expected Employment component increased by 3.4 points, to 97.9 points, and the Business Trend six months ahead increased by 1.6 points, to 90.6 points. Expected Demand remained stable at around 88 points. As for the current moment, the Current business situation component remained stable at 97.0 points, while Current demand volume fell 0.2 points, to 94.9 points.
Between November and December, services confidence fell 2.4 points, to 92.0 points; that of commerce rose 0.2 points, to 86.7 points; that of industry increased by 2.6 points, to 95.3 points; and construction shrank 0.2 points, to 96.0 points.
In December, confidence increased in 55% of the 49 segments that make up ICE.
The Business Confidence Index collection brought together information from 3,876 companies from the four sectors between December 1st and 26th.
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