Above all, the threat from the IS terrorist militia led to the deployment of the Bundeswehr in Iraq, which is finding more stability with difficulty. Now the foreign assignment is up for debate again.
Baghdad/Berlin – A few days ago Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht seemed to want to make a small promise in Baghdad that the Bundeswehr would continue to support Iraq.
“We work well together,” said the SPD politician when she stepped up to the lectern next to her Iraqi colleague Juma Inad. “We are also involved in international efforts. And that’s how it will be in the future as well.”
IS has access to millions of dollars
The federal government has already decided to extend the Bundeswehr’s participation in the international mission against the Islamic State (IS) terrorist militia, initially until October, and as before with up to 500 soldiers. The fight against the IS should be of secondary importance. The focus should be on training and advising the armed forces. The Bundestag, which ultimately decides, is discussing the foreign assignment today. The dramatic withdrawal from Afghanistan a few months ago is still fresh in our minds.
Today, Iraq is a long way from the “caliphate” that the terrorist militia proclaimed in Iraq and Syria. IS no longer controls its own territories. According to UN information, there are still an estimated 10,000 IS fighters in both countries. In Iraq they carry out armed attacks and attacks, they lie in ambush, they kidnap and murder. “The endurance and resilience of the group is remarkable,” said Stanford University researcher Cole Bunzel. According to the US Treasury Department, IS still has tens of millions of dollars in its coffers.
Adjusted mandate for Bundeswehr deployment
The inspector general of the US Department of Defense also writes that ISIS has been weakened, but the group “remains a threat and the fight for a sustained victory over ISIS is not over”. In this fight, however, the Iraqis are said to be able to stand on their own feet even more than before: the combat mission of the anti-IS coalition, led by the USA, ended at the turn of the year. The approximately 2,500 US soldiers involved in this mission are only in the country in an advisory capacity. The amended mandate for the deployment of the Bundeswehr also fits in with this.
Iraq is entering the next phase on an arduous journey to finding stability after years of extremist terror, sectarian violence and political unrest. After all, there have been five peaceful changes of power since 2004, a rather unusual result for the Arab world. The parliamentary elections in October were “peaceful and well organized overall” and without evidence of “systematic fraud”, as UN special envoy Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert said in November. The resentment of young Iraqis in particular was great beforehand, and voter turnout fell to a record low.
influence of Iran
At the same time, the influence of the powerful neighbor Iran is unbroken. Around January 3, its allies again attacked US forces installations in Iraq and Syria, including Camp Victory near Baghdad Airport, the nerve center of US forces in Iraq. Not far from here, Iran’s top general Ghassem Soleimani was killed in a US attack in 2020. The threat of drone and missile attacks is even higher than usual on the anniversary of his killing.
According to analysts at the Soufan Center, expelling US troops from Iraq altogether and turning it into a “vassal state” of Tehran would be an appropriate “vengeance” for Iran. Iran sees signs in the adapted military operation and in the US withdrawal from Afghanistan that sustained pressure could also force the complete withdrawal from Iraq. The US mission in Iraq (18 years) is almost as long as the now ended one in Afghanistan (20 years). A withdrawal of the Americans would also call the German Iraq mission into question.
Large oil and gas deposits
But Iraq has a completely different strategic importance than Afghanistan: large oil and gas deposits, as well as borders with important US allies and opponents, such as Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Iran. He also remains crucial in efforts to prevent the IS terrorist militia from rising again. David Pollock of the Washington Institute writes that the odds are surprisingly good for Iraq to be a “reasonably stable, self-sufficient, non-combatant and even democratic country.” dpa
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