Dhe gas storage facilities are still full, and spring will begin in just a few days. The question of what consequences gas rationing would have for industry has been settled for the time being. But the next winter will definitely come – and that’s why the emergency plans of the Federal Network Agency have by no means disappeared into a drawer. If things get tight, she would have to decide as the “federal load distributor” who gets how much gas.
“It is necessary to work with the same consistency as last year and to make preparations for all scenarios,” says a paper from the authority. The authority does not want to specify an exact shutdown sequence for individual companies for the coming winter either. However, an evaluation scheme that has now been published shows which industries would be “particularly worth protecting” in a situation of shortage or, conversely, which would be most likely to be eligible for cuts.
The network agency relies on a study by the Prognos Institute. This examined a total of 78 “production areas” and classified them according to their importance. The 36 sectors classified as “critical infrastructure” by the Federal Office for Civil Protection and Disaster Assistance (BBK), such as energy supply, nutrition, health, water supply, information technology and telecommunications, media and culture, waste disposal, administration and transport, enjoy the highest protection status. Protected customers also include private households, which would be primarily supplied with gas for heating even in the event of a shortage.
According to the current status, it would initially affect around 40,000 smaller companies. In the first phase, they would have to reckon with percentage reductions in the event of a gas shortage. With the new catalogue, however, numerous companies are filtered out of this group because they are also classified as particularly worthy of protection. These include dairies and meat plants, beverage manufacturers and mineral oil processing, but also the manufacture of precision instruments and the car trade.
Chemicals, glass and steel “less worth protecting”?
If the “proportional” cuts among the remaining smaller companies are not enough, the network agency can issue “individual decrees” to reduce the gas purchases of the 2,500 largest gas consumers. At first glance, the lists seem explosive. Chemicals, plastics, paper, iron and steel, glass, plastics, metal products and building materials such as bricks, tiles and ceramics are listed as “production areas less worthy of protection”, all sectors with high direct gas consumption. According to previous information from its industry association, the chemical industry alone accounts for around 15 percent of the total requirement.
However, the lists do not yet allow any conclusions to be drawn as to where and to what extent the red pencil would actually be applied. Because in a second step, it is checked to what extent these sectors deliver advance services and products in order to keep the critical areas going. Chemical precursors for vital areas are therefore more important than plastic for toy production. As a result, a “degree of importance” is determined, which indicates what proportion of the gas consumption in the value chain is required for production areas that are particularly worthy of protection. According to the study, this is 41 percent in chemistry, but only 23 percent in steel production.
Substitutability is included
Finally, the third stage is about whether and to what extent critical preliminary products could also be obtained from abroad. The benchmark for this is the “complexity” of the products, which should give an indication of how easily they can be replaced. According to Prognos, plastics, for example, only make a “very small contribution to production areas that are particularly worthy of protection”. On the other hand, they are classified as particularly difficult to substitute. In this way, each production area is assigned criteria “that allow prioritization,” according to the study.
However, the network agency attaches great importance to the fact that the results will not form the sole basis for decision-making. Among other things, business and economic costs would also have to be taken into account. This includes, for example, the question of whether a gas stop will cause permanent damage to the systems, as the glass industry, for example, fears. Decisions are “always made directly in the actual crisis situation, under the framework and boundary conditions that then apply,” says the official paper.
#Bundesnetzagentur #gas #emergency #plans #winter