Nayib Bukele likes to joke about himself. When he graduated, in the school yearbook he described himself as a class terrorist, a class terrorist. It was his way of mocking what it means to be of Palestinian origin in a country, El Salvador, dominated by a white class with European roots. He hasn't changed much in his way of dealing with adversity over time. Two years ago, just as criticism of his authoritarian ways of governing the country began to mount, he changed his Twitter bio to describe himself as “the most powerful dictator.” cool of the global world.” Around the planet it had generated a current of sympathy, especially among young people who saw the cinematographic quality videos, in which hundreds of gang members appear subdued with shackles in prison yards. The act of mockingly announcing himself as the satrap of this small nation of 6.3 million people might be funny, if it weren't for the fact that the international community has been alarmed by the deterioration of democracy since his rise to power four years ago. years.
Its popularity inside and outside its borders is overwhelming. Next Sunday, February 4, he will once again be elected president of El Salvador with an overwhelming majority, according to all the polls. He will not even need to go to a second round. His gelled hair, his carefully trimmed beard, his jeans, his backwards cap, his voice modulation trained to please, will once again be present in the daily lives of Salvadorans, at least until 2028. Afterwards, fate will tell. . He is running despite the fact that up to six articles of the Salvadoran Constitution expressly prohibited consecutive re-election. However, the Constitutional Chamber, a body controlled by him, has made a more than questionable interpretation that allows him to participate in the next elections if he were to leave office six months earlier. This is what Bukele has done, regularly accusing NGOs and nations that question his methods of trying to destabilize the good work that, in his view, he has implemented in the country.
The success it has achieved in terms of security is undeniable, but at what cost? Bukele, shortly after becoming president, in 2019, negotiated with the main gangs of El Salvador, the Mara Salvatrucha 13 and Barrio 18 – which emerged in Los Angeles, California, and moved to the Central American country when the United States deported its members en masse. members at the end of the 70s—but in March 2022 he broke the pact and established an emergency regime. In the previous days there had been 80 homicides that had spread terror. But everything changed overnight in this country accustomed to violence. The authorities have applied a heavy hand and in this time have detained more than 70,000 people. Peace has been imposed in neighborhoods that had been dominated by gangs for decades. Extortion payments amounted to 3% of GDP and the annual cost of violence, 16%, a stratospheric figure. In 2023, according to figures that some question, El Salvador registered 2.4 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants, one of the lowest in Latin America, when before Bukele arrived it had the highest ratios in the world, with 103.
It is enough to go to any neighborhood in San Salvador freed from gangs to hear hagiographic phrases about Bukele. He himself has an exaggerated conception of himself. “Bukele is bold, complicated, authoritarian, he thinks quickly and has the ability to make decisions without caring about the means. “He has no scruples,” says someone who worked very closely with him by phone. This desire to impose his law at any price has led to obvious undermining of human rights. Human Rights Watch has denounced abuses during the emergency regime. Another considerable number of organizations have documented torture, arbitrary detentions—a boy with Down syndrome—and suspicious deaths in prisons. Lawyers and relatives of prisoners complain that they have no contact with them, and that they are subjected to virtual trials without witnesses. Bukele's system, according to him, has proven almost infallible: he says that the margin of error in arrests is 1%.
Gustavo Flores-Macías, a professor specialized in governments and public policies at Cornell University in the United States, believes that the elections will serve as a referendum on Bukele's measures. Once the opposition is destroyed, his party, Nuevas Ideas, will once again have a majority in the Legislative Assembly, which will mean that it will continue to bring together all the power. The country, right now, is yours. “The results in terms of public security have exceeded the wildest predictions, but the cost in terms of human rights and individual rights has been considerable,” explains Flores-Macías, who points out that due process has been interrupted and the authorities can imprison almost with complete freedom anyone they consider suspicious.
The population, the academic believes, seems to consider that the new panorama is well worth the cost in terms of human rights and the sustained erosion of counterweights to the president such as Congress or the judiciary. “If Bukele wins by a large margin, as anticipated, it will be a clear message from Salvadorans that the desperation in the face of insecurity was such that the rule of law can take a backseat.” Valeria Vásquez, senior analyst at the consulting firm Control Risks for Central America, assures that El Salvador has seen a significant decline in democracy. “Bukele changed the attorney general, several judges and basically the separation of powers no longer exists. And that is going to deteriorate further,” explains Vásquez.
She recognizes that Bukele's security results “can be seen in the streets,” hence his enormous popularity. She describes the president as someone who is personalistic, with authoritarian tendencies, something that she believes she can only do more of. “We will continue to see a lot of him over the next few years. “This is just the beginning,” he ventures. The Bukele method is causing a sensation in the countries of the region. The president of Ecuador, Daniel Noboa, has announced the creation of two prisons Bukele style in the face of the serious crisis of insecurity that the country is experiencing, also dominated by gangs. Mayors, legislators and governors from Peru, Chile, Argentina, and the most unexpected places, have campaigned assuring that they will follow in their footsteps.
No one can stop Bukele, delighted to engulf everything around him. A few weeks ago he took a photo with Messi and the entire Inter Miami squad. At the UN headquarters in September, everyone was waiting for his speech. People have been amazed at how this 42-year-old man, who started out as a manager of a Yamaha dealership, the son of a polygamous father, with six wives and 10 children, in a very short time has ended – for now – with the gangs, but to do so it has left fundamental rights in suspense. The Salvadorans, as everything seems to indicate, will give him overwhelming support within seven days.
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