BTP, the race continues: Italy from last place to first place
The spread at two-year lows, i small savers who return to subscribe to government bonds, the foreign investors who crowd the auctions attracted by the high margins and meanwhile theeconomy remains solid: the race for AI doesn't stop Btp. Only to March our country has touched a new European record of demand: the placement, managed with Banco Bilbao, BofA, Citibank, HSBC and Société Générale in the role of lead managers, allowed the Treasury to place 5 billionhowever in the face of a demand that is over eight times greater, reaching i 41 billion. In the data there is a new record for the Treasury, because it is the highest volume ever for an indexed security in Europe. But not just March. As he recalls Messengerto Januaryagain for an auction of two BTPs, “an application had arrived for 155 billion of euros: things never seen, and difficult to imagine just a year ago, when there was fear that the end of public debt purchases by the European Central Bank could put securities placements are under pressure and the Italian spread”.
A scenario, however, that did not occur. In fact, the opposite. Foreign investors have returned: in one year their share of the debt rose to 27.6 percent, 51 billion more. The reason for this boom? In addition to the good returns that BTPs offer today, it was also the return of a mass participation of savers Italians to the placements reserved for them by the Treasury. But also a debt Italian no longer perceived as “scary” and a greater trust towards our country. It should in fact be remembered that the recent Btp Value, a six-year bond with interest increasing after three years and quarterly coupons, attracted over 18 billion euros, while the previous four issues exceeded 50 billion. If we think that Italian families, according to a Fabi study, keep over 1,500 billion euros in their current accounts, with interests minimal or zero, the fact that the government has recognized the possibility of using these resources to purchase BTPs through personalized offers such as Btp Valore and Btp Italiathis is certainly no small thing.
This approach offered the double benefit of stabilize the debt and reinvest tax resources directly into citizens' pockets, almost as a form of reimbursement. This strategy has produced positive results, explains the Messenger: in ten months the Italians have increased their exposure to the national debt by over 120 billion euros, bringing the total share of BTPs to 13.4%.
Italy is now perceived as a less risky investment, with the spread to historic lows in two years and the possibility of further reductions of up to 100 basis points, according to some experts. The ECB's monetary policy, together with the competitive returns offered by Italian bonds, attracts investors. Furthermore, the yield differential between Italian and German bonds is supported by a number of factors, including stable ratings, above-average economic growth for the eurozone and lower interest rates that will reduce future interest spending. This favorable environment takes place despite restrictive monetary policy and modest economic growth.
Some economists even speak of a “new Italian miracle“, highlighting the country's astonishing growth rate in recent years and its dynamic and innovative industrial sector. However, risks also exist, such as economic stagnation in Germany, labor shortages and potential energy crises. Despite this, the investments of Pnrr could contribute to higher-than-forecast growth. In fact, the Italian GDP has surpassed that of the main G7 countries in recent years, demonstrating greater resilience and efficiency, despite the level of public debt.
#BTP #fever #Italian #debt #longer #scary #record #demand #billion
