Leaving the tax on energy companies out of the Budget agreement, which is what the PSOE has agreed with PNV and Junts against the criteria of the rest of the investiture partners – including the minority partner of the coalition, Sumar – would have an effect negative in the deficit objectives to which the Government has committed itself with the European Commission. It is one of the conclusions that emerge from the autumn economic forecasts prepared by community technicians, who once again warn that eliminating special taxes on banks and electricity companies will mean an increase in the deficit given the reduction in income it will entail for the companies. public coffers.
The deficit path that the Government sent to Brussels establishes that it will be at 3% when this year ends – the European Commission trusts that it will be met – and that it will drop to 2.5% in 2025 (the calculations of the community technicians are that there will be a deviation of one tenth due to the increase in interest). The European Commission’s analysis is, however, based on a policy scenario without changes in the absence of a budget project in Spain.
As for 2026, the Government’s objective is for the deficit to be reduced to 2.1%. However, Brussels’ forecast raises it to 2.6% and attributes it largely to the disappearance of those two taxes that were approved temporarily in the midst of the energy crisis. “In 2026, the general government deficit is expected to increase slightly, to 2.7% of GDP, due to the expiration of taxes on banks and energy companies,” concludes the European Commission.
The warning from the European Commission is not new, but this time it occurs in the midst of budget negotiations and, specifically, the fight to make these extraordinary rates permanent. The socialists distanced themselves from Sumar in the negotiation and agreed with PNV and Junts to eliminate the tax on energy companies, although that of banks would remain. In total, 2,859 million euros have been collected in 2024 with these two taxes.
The message from Brussels also coincides with the reforms corresponding to the fifth payment of European funds, which includes a tax reform. The European Commission insists that Spain has room to harmonize its taxation with that of the rest of Europe, while the socialist wing of the Government now maintains that the changes that have been made in recent years are sufficient. “We have already made all the necessary decisions to, precisely, comply with the obligations that this milestone of the fifth payment entails. [del Plan de Recuperación]“said Economy Minister Carlos Body in June.
Among the most concrete initiatives is ‘green’ taxation which, as recalled in its report, is much lower than the European average (1.5% of GDP compared to 2% in Europe). Brussels considers that there is room, therefore, to raise up to an extra 7.3 billion euros in this way.
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