Draghi in pressing with the Spanish leader on the Alliance not to forget North Africa. War and the food crisis risk unleashing an unprecedented wave of migration
Rome-Madrid. The question, sooner or later, would be posed in these terms. As Pedro Sanchez, the host of the NATO summit in Madrid, said: we must not discover the side of the South. “It is time for the Alliance to recognize its importance in a 360-degree strategy”, said the Spanish premier in a joint statement with US President Joe Biden after their meeting at Moncloa. It is the same concern that agitates the Italian government.
Ukraine has imposed the urgency to strengthen the borders in the East. Men and means that serve to dissuade Vladimir Putin from other war initiatives. For this reason, the contribution of individual NATO members will increase in military terms. But every choice will have to be weighed, bearing in mind that for the countries of Southern Europe the Mediterranean is a hot border, and it is vital to keep it safe.
Italian diplomacy has been working on this aspect for months. The concern of the Rome government had already emerged during Mario Draghi’s visit to Washington. The food crisis, which was unleashed in the multiplier effect of the war, is added to the other factors of geopolitical instability in the African, Mediterranean and Middle Eastern area. Hunger, drought, climate change can all turn into contributing causes of instability. Moreover, jihadist terrorism remains a concrete threat, albeit less feared than in the past.
Yesterday Draghi arrived in Madrid, at the end of the G7 in Germany, to participate with the other leaders in the dinner organized by King Felipe of Spain. The opportunity to initiate the first speeches. The Italian premier should ensure a bank for Sanchez on the southern front. The Spanish prime minister spoke of the need for a “coordinated response” from NATO countries and mentioned the Sahel as a worrying hotbed. Yes, because mass migrations could become numerically frightening for the southern belt of Europe. And, in this sense, the Italian fears for Libya and Tunisia are reflected in the Spanish ones for Ceuta and Melilla, the two enclaves in Morocco, the scene of a massacre of migrants fleeing to the Old Continent.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine is naturally at the top of the Italian government’s concerns. There will be another decree next week, the fourth, to send weapons to the invaded country. The transfer of new 155 mm Fh70 guns and old M109 self-propelled guns, now abandoned by our army, is hypothesized. The protraction of the war, however, is also putting our arsenals on the ropes. Even if we still have weapons to sell, we are not offering ammunition. And it will be up to the Defense Staff to assess the balance between Ukrainian requests and national needs.
Woe to forget the Southern Front, though. Defense Minister Lorenzo Guerini has just fired a Directive on the Mediterranean and spoke about it in a meeting of generals, just before leaving for Madrid. «I believe that the current situation in which we are immersed – he explained in the closing ceremony of the academic year at the Defense Studies Center – tells us that we must once again reconfirm the basic concepts with dramatic clarity. The Russian aggression against Ukraine in the east of our continent, on the borders of NATO and the European Union, is a very serious act of violation of international principles. It represents a threat to international stability, but it also has indisputable reverberations on the Mediterranean. From the food crisis to the great energy issue, these things intertwine and intersect with the reference area of our primary interests “.
In short, we are very anxious that the enlarged Mediterranean or North Africa, the Sahel, the Middle East, the Horn of Africa, is not forgotten by NATO. Guerini always says: «The relationship between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea means protecting the energy interests of our country and beyond. It means the protection of the freedom and safety of shipping and transport routes. All things that are at the heart of our work. We want it to be held together in a flexible NATO, capable of acting at 360 degrees ».
And yet the ambitions will have to deal with the prosaic reality of our arsenals and our current armed forces. If the leap forward of the rapid reaction forces of the entire NATO is confirmed, which should increase from 40 to 300 thousand soldiers immediately mobilizable, this will mean that Italy should guarantee NATO from 10 to 15 thousand soldiers, equal to three o four full-strength brigades, well armed and trained, with vehicles and logistics capable of moving outside the national territory. At that point even the famous 2% of GDP will not be enough for military spending.
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