The US-China diplomatic battle that complicates peace in Ukraine
Antony Blinken in Russia’s home garden, Aleksandr Lukashenko at the home of Washington’s main rival. The United States and China continue to play their chess game over the war in Ukraine, which in some ways even seems to have bypassed Moscow itself. The US secretary of state has arrived in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, where he is scheduled to meet with diplomats from all five of the former Soviet republics of Central Asia. Simultaneously, the leader of Belarus arrived in Beijing to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The feeling is that an important part of the current diplomatic structure around the conflict is played out in these cross-journeys, at least that of the neighboring countries of Russia and therefore traditionally within its sphere of influence. This is especially true for Belarus, which Ukraine has repeatedly accused of wanting to take a more active part in the conflict and which has provided logistical assistance to the Russian action especially at the beginning of the invasion.
Lukashenko arrived in Beijing full of words of admiration for China. “I have the warmest and kindest memories of my first visit to China, my first impressions of the country and my cooperation with the leaders of the People’s Republic of China“, he told the state news agency Xinhua. To then add that “no one can stop the rise of China”. Signal in Washington but not only, in a region where the Chinese ascendancy appears to be increasingly strong.
Lukashenko has already spoken out in favor of the document published by the Chinese government to reach a political solution in Ukraine and will reiterate his support during his trip. For his part, Xi will try to get some more information on the maneuvers and intentions of Putin, who speaks regularly with Lukashenko. The last time, as he himself explained, on the anniversary of what the Kremlin calls a “special military operation”.
Different nuances instead for the 5 -stan, who never condemned Vladimir Putin’s decision but neither did they provide that support which the Kremlin would probably have expected. Yes, because in January 2022 Putin sent his military and security forces to help Kazakh President Qasym-Jomart Tokayev contain the revolt that had exploded due to the increase in petrol prices. After the return of calm, however, Tokayev had asked the Russian military to leave the country, even in the face of numerous protests from the Kazakhs.
Not only. Kazakhstan has also begun taking in tens of thousands of Russian citizens who didn’t want to be drafted into the army to go and fight in Ukraine. The same thing, albeit with smaller numbers, also happened in Uzbekistan, where Blinken goes after the Kazakh stage. So much so that the events have created quite a few tensions with Putin, who has seen his influence partially eroded, which however remains very strong both from an economic point of view and from that of the defense sector.
It was China that gained space, which projected itself into an area considered strategic such as Central Asia with even greater conviction. Also because Moscow, increasingly dependent politically and economically on Beijing after the total break with the West caused by the war, certainly can not complain in front of Xi Jinping. The Chinese leader makes political-rhetorical support and the increase in energy imports weigh on the Kremlin, however, guaranteeing unhindered access to Central Asia, where he proposes himself as a responsible power and guarantor of stability and territorial integrity.
Not by chance, Blinken explained to Kazakh Foreign Minister Mukhtar Tileuberdi that Washington supports sovereignty, the independence and territorial integrity of Kazakhstan, which gained independence from Moscow in 1991. “Sometimes we just say these words, but in fact they have real meaning and of course we know that at this particular moment they have a resonance even bigger than usual,” Blinken said in reference to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, also a former Soviet republic. But with perhaps also a reference to the Chinese insistence on the concept.
Washington and NATO have harshly criticized the Chinese position paper and want to prevent Xi Jinping from turning what is called “pro-Russian neutrality” in a posture of a peacemaker or in any case of a responsible power. Perhaps this is also why the State Department and the CIA have launched several warnings about the possible sending of lethal weapons to Moscow by China. For now, this possibility has also been denied by Joe Biden himself, but which is remembered to avoid a Chinese diplomatic success which according to the US derives from the simple remodulation of its ambiguities (alongside Russia) and not from a real neutral position.
Blinken’s visit to a strategic area is also needed for this, not only at a commercial level, but also in terms of possible diplomacy on the conflict. In addition to the battle on the ground, there is another diplomatic battle going on between the two major global powers. And perhaps the second makes the end of the first more difficult.
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