Despite the 27.56% performance achieved by the S&P 500 in the year and 33.46% by the Nasdaq, BlackRock, one of the global giants of the investment industry, maintains its preference for the North American stock market and technological values. During the presentation of prospects for next year, Javier García Díaz, head of sales for Iberia at the manager, in fact stressed that it is his main geographical area of conviction. “It presents a good picture of economic growth, with good fundamentals, an increase in business profits between 15% and 20% in quality companies, with healthy cash flows,” he explained. Reasons that lead them to maintain their conviction for Wall Street, also driven by the megatrend of the technological revolution and artificial intelligence (AI).
García Díaz pointed out that “we are at the beginning of AI”, so they remain “constructive” about the journey of great technological values. “Their behavior is based on obtaining profits and we are still at the beginning of artificial intelligence,” warned the BlackRock sales manager, who explained that the impact it will have in the near future in sectors such as financial, telecommunications or the health and productivity of the economy could add, according to the manager’s calculations, up to 1.5 percentage points per year of extra growth in the next five years in the US.
All this leads them to recommend increasing exposure to North American equities. “It is a good time to take risk, especially in the United States,” he stressed, at a time when the measures that the new Donald Trump government will adopt, aggressive in tariffs and deregulation, will continue to give fuel to the small caps.
Another of the manager’s bets continues to be japanese bagwhich due to its accommodative and corporate monetary policy favorable to investors, and where in the opinion of BlackRock, there remains little exposure among European investors.
The third conviction in equities is China, where they are tactically overweight because “it presents a better economic situation, with data that points to the expansion of the economy, with growth in consumption and a stronger labor market. But we prefer the shares of domestic companies, more favored by the government’s stimulus measures and more immune to an increase in tariffs by the US,” said García Díaz, who recalled the transfer that is taking place of the savings of Chinese households from deposits and monetary funds to investment in local companies.
They maintain their underweight in the European stock marketdespite the discounts it presents with respect to the North American stock market, motivated above all by political risks. “European economic growth is slowing down and we must add the political uncertainty in France and Germany, apart from the fact that in strategic sectors we are still below other markets such as the United States, in technology, or China, in the automotive sector, where the cost of labor force is 3% compared to 20% in Europe,” said García Díaz, who recalled the impact that Donald Trump’s trade policy will have.
Despite this less optimistic vision of the Old Continent, They bet more on peripheral stock markets, like the Spanish onewhere they maintain a neutral allocation in the portfolios, thanks to economic growth and the valuations of Spanish companies.
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