According to Arthur Hayes' forecast, the drop will be due to a reduction in dollar liquidity
The former CEO of BitMEX Arthur Hayes said in a post on social media that bitcoin could fall 40% after the approval of a crypto ETF (an investment fund traded on the Stock Exchange) on the spot market and recommended caution.
He believes the cryptocurrency market has been riding on the expectation of this fund as a momentum factor in recent months, but is entering a phase of uncertainty and anticipates an increase in volatility, which could trigger a correction.
The co-founder of crypto platform BitMEX anticipates a correction of up to 40% in the cryptocurrency market, possibly because of a reduction in liquidity in dollareven with current projections that bitcoin will reach historic levels this year.
Hayes also mentioned that the meeting of the Fed, the US central bank, on January 20th will be an important event for the market. He speculates that, along with the possible decrease in dollar liquidity and the Fed's decision on interest rates, a correction could occur in March if the spot bitcoin ETF starts trading in the US. The cryptocurrency investor said he will refrain from trading cryptocurrencies until he sees the March results and the liquidity generated by the ETF, and that he is considering investing in bitcoin put options expiring in June during this period.
Hayes' prediction, which takes into account global financial dynamics, runs counter to expectations that the ETF will boost the market. He recalls that there are several factors that could influence the cryptocurrency market in the first quarter of 2024, and advises caution in the cryptocurrency investment strategy.
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