To help mediate an ambitious agreement between Hamas and Israel, leading to the release of the hostages, President Biden intends to send the director of the CIA, William J. Burns, to Gaza in the next few days. The agreement would include the release of hostages still in Gaza in exchange for the longest pause in hostilities recorded since the start of the war. This was revealed by the Washington Post, citing informed sources according to whom Burns will also be in Europe for talks and to meet the heads of Israeli and Egyptian intelligence, David Barnea and Abbas Kamel, and the Prime Minister of Qatar, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani.
The discussions that Burns will have in Europe – continues the Post which does not specify in which European country the meetings will take place, which last December took place in Warsaw – will continue the work that the diplomat who became head of US intelligence conducted in telephone conversations with the his counterparts. Egypt and Qatar are the key mediators between Israel and Hamas, and allowed the first truce and hostage release agreement to be reached last November. To date, however, tensions between Qatar and Benjamin Netanyahu are now skyrocketing, after the release of audio in which the prime minister is heard discrediting Doha, during a meeting with the hostages' families.
The current situation
The latest Israeli proposal provides for a 60-day pause in the conflict in exchange for a gradual release of over 100 hostages, starting with women and children, then moving on to civilian men, and then the soldiers, first women and then men, together with the bodies of the hostages who died during their detention. The pause would not prevent Israel from resuming fighting after the two-month truce, in line with Netanyahu's stated goal of the “total destruction” of Hamas.
Israel has also proposed that top Hamas leaders agree to leave Gaza, but a source familiar with the negotiations told the Post that this is not even being considered by the group and its military leadership. Furthermore, Hamas rejects the 60-day truce proposal, stating that the next release of hostages will only take place in exchange for a permanent ceasefire.
The knots still open
Several informed sources explain that there are several issues to be resolved for the negotiations. According to Samir Farag, a retired Egyptian general, both Hamas and Israel have shown their willingness to return to the negotiating table: “Everyone wants peace, the Palestinians, Hamas, the Israelis, but everyone wants to win in the negotiations, we are trying to find a meeting point.” Farag underlines that having the hostages in their hands puts Hamas “in a position of strength: I think Netanyahu is under pressure, because the people in Israel want the hostages released. So he has to do something, otherwise, for him it's a big deal problem, especially because it lost many soldiers in the war.”
Although the situation on the ground is increasingly heated, with Israeli forces now surrounding Khan Younis where they are said to have bombed a UN compound with 30 thousand displaced people, and the sparks between Doha and Netanyahu, Farag believes the parties are close to an agreement. But Hamas “asked for a guarantee because sometimes they handed over hostages but Israel attacked them again.”
And the United States is the only actor capable of giving this guarantee, continues the former Egyptian defense official, underlining that Cairo believes that Washington can put pressure on Tel Aviv on the issue of military assistance. “Who supports Israel? The United States, who gives it all the ammunition? If the Americans say no, then it must stop.”
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