The entire United States will elect a president on November 5, but only half a dozen states have the potential power to decide. In these, President Joe Biden went hand in hand with his rival, Donald Trump. A Bloomberg survey published this Wednesday reveals that during April it has lost ground, mainly due to the economic situation.
Trump scores two points in Michigan, where the Biden Government's support for Israel distances it from the Muslim population, which is very large around Detroit. He is one point behind him in his native Pennsylvania, where he is concentrating efforts, although there he is still within the 1% margin of error that the Morning Consult poll has. In Wisconsin, a more progressive state where he was attributed a minimal advantage, he is now four points behind.
In addition, he has widened the distance that separates him from Trump in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina. In the latter, the former president leads by ten points, while in Nevada, where there is a significant Hispanic population, Trump would win by eight points and in Arizona by seven, if the elections were held today.
Reading the survey is devastating for the president, particularly in the month in which the first criminal trial against Trump has begun. The contrast of his image with that of the former president sitting in the dock, and prevented from campaigning in the old way, should have given him a break, but that has not been the case.
Two in three Americans do not believe that Trump committed any crime in the case for which he is being tried in New York, according to another Associated Press poll. In any case, the former president's moral height is of little concern compared to the economy, where voters see no improvement. Less than 25% have faith that inflation and interest rates will fall this year and, despite the technical strength of the labor market, only 23% expect it to improve.
'Bidenomic'
The 'Bidenomics' that the president wants to sell as success does not succeed, but rather begins to be synonymous with inflation. And no matter how much the White House tries to put it in perspective with the pandemic debacle, more than three-quarters of those who responded to the survey consider Biden responsible for this situation.
His campaign is counting on the pull of social issues, especially abortion, to increase participation among the Democratic and independent bases. In that he is right. More than half of voters in these seven states surveyed by the Bloomberg survey say that termination of pregnancy is a very important issue when deciding their vote.
This has been helped by the decision of the Arizona Supreme Court, which on April 9 validated one of the most restrictive abortion laws in the entire country, which dates back to 1864. Automatically, it has become the most important issue for 3 of every 10 Democratic women in that State, surpassing that of the economy.
Independent voters in Arizona trust Biden more than Trump to fix it, by 12 points, which increases to 25 among women in the suburban belts. Aware of this, Trump is trying to moderate his position on this issue.
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