The thaw summit between Xi Jinping and Joe Biden is ready
“It is very important that the President Xi Jinping goes to San Francisco to meet President Joe Biden”. It’s not official yet, but the most anticipated diplomatic meeting of the year has been confirmed (inadvertently?) by the Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. Speaking at a press conference in Beijing at the end of his meeting with Xi, Albanese let slip this consideration which gives further substance to a rumor which in reality had already found multiple confirmations in recent weeks.
Xi will go to San Francisco for the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit scheduled for November 15-17. On the sidelines of the event, the Chinese leader will hold a bilateral meeting with Biden. On the other hand, the American administration worked incessantly to ensure that Xi decided to appear in the USA for the first time in six years. Before the trade war, before the technological dispute, before the escalation of tensions over Taiwan and the South China Sea, before the breakdown of dialogue on the military front.
There have been many signs of a desire to stabilize relations between the two powers in recent weeks. Over the summer, there was a lot of coming and going of members of the Biden administration in Beijing. First Antony Blinken, then Janet Yellen and John Kerry, finally Gina Raimondo. It’s not all. Even doyens of Stars and Stripes diplomacy such as Henry Kissinger and captains of industry such as the CEOs of Intel and Apple showed up in Beijing.
A favor reciprocated by Wang Yi, the Chinese Foreign Minister who went to Washington about ten days ago to prepare the details of Xi’s trip, who in a highly symbolic move also received the governor of California Gavin Newsom. That is, the host of the APEC summit in which he is called to participate. A Pentagon delegation it even presented itself at the Xiangshan Forum, an important defense event, in Beijing after the removal of Defense Minister Li Shangfu, who had been under US sanctions since 2018 for purchasing weapons from Russia.
This is why the USA and China cannot afford to increase tensions
Further developments in the last few days. The US Department of Agriculture is present at China’s largest import fair, the China International Import Expo (CIIE). “Agriculture could be the success story in the relationship between our two governments, because there is such a perfect fit,” U.S. Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns said in Beijing.
After suffering a sharp decline in 2018, when then-US President Donald Trump launched a trade war against China, the country’s agricultural purchases from the US have risen steadily in subsequent years. Last year, China remained the largest agricultural export market for the United States, purchasing a record nearly $41 billion, triple the $13 billion in 2018, according to USDA data. The purchases were led by soybeans and corn.
Also American Ballet Theater has returned to China for the first time in a decade. The 85 dancers of the New York troupe held an opening night at the Grand Theater in Shanghai, where they will perform “Classic Old and New,” a program of three different works that include both contemporary and classical choreography, said Susan Jaffe, artistic director of the group. The tour marks a resumption of cultural exchanges between China and the United States. The Asian giant will also host a series of performances by the Philadelphia Orchestra starting next week, marking the 50th anniversary of the orchestra’s historic visit to China in 1973.
From Wednesday 8 November The new czar of the Chinese economy, He Lifeng, will then be in the USA. This is a loyalist of Xi, who has just been promoted to head of Beijing’s economic policies. He will meet Yellen and pave the way for Xi’s next arrival. From this dynamic we should certainly not expect that the USA and China will suddenly become friends. But stabilizing the disagreement would already be an excellent result.
However, Both leaders would benefit from reaching some type of consensus on bilateral relations. For various reasons, both cannot afford a direct confrontation in the short term. The USA is perhaps the one with the greatest urgency. They are already involved in assisting Ukraine and Israel with conflicts in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. They cannot afford the opening of a third front in the Asia-Pacific, which is also the heart of American strategic interests.
Not only. Biden also needs to show some results in a foreign policy that up to now has almost only left him with disappointments. Republicans criticize him for weakness, arguing that he is unable to reach agreements with anyone or prevent aggressive actions by rival countries. With the election campaign not too far on the horizon, Biden needs to show that he knows how to manage the relationship with China.
For Xi, however, the current priority is undoubtedly the economic one. China just reported its first quarterly foreign direct investment (FDI) deficit), underlining the pressure of capital outflow from Western governments. According to an analysis of Chinese data, for six consecutive quarters through the end of September, foreign firms have drained China of more than $160 billion in total profits, an unusually sustained series of profit outflows that shows how the country’s appeal is waning. for foreign capital.
The analysis of the influential Chinese observer Wang Xiangwei is interesting: “The stream risks becoming a river if the government does not take immediate and substantial measures to revive confidence.” AND how to relaunch trust better than showing that disagreement with the US can be managed?
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