In Bakhmut and in the east of Ukraine, the outcome of the war and the fate of Kiev are decided. It is the ‘prediction’ that the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky entrusts to the usual evening message on Telegram. “We have to destroy the military power of the enemy and we will destroy it. In Belogorivka, Maryinka, Avdiivka, Bakhmut, Vuhledar and Kamianka they are deciding what our future will be. Here we are fighting for our future,” he says. “I thank all those who are currently fighting. Thanks to all those who defend their positions and fight for Ukraine and their brothers,” he added.
According to reports from the commander of the Kiev land forces Oleksandr Syrskyi, Wagner’s militias continue to try to break through the defenses and advance towards the center of the city, but are suffering heavy losses. “The situation around Bakhmut remains difficult. Wagner’s assault units are advancing from multiple directions, trying to break through our troops’ defenses and advance towards the central areas of the city,” Syrskyi said, adding that “over the course of fierce battles, Ukrainian soldiers inflict significant losses on the occupiers”.
In Moscow, then, there would be a problem of relationships and balances in the management of military resources. The Institute for the Study of War reported that the Russian Defense Ministry was “deliberately using the Wagner group in Bakhmut as a scapegoat for taking the city”. According to the Washington-based think tank, Moscow’s decision to employ mercenaries in the costly, in terms of human lives, conquest of the city would depend on a sort of showdown between Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and the head of the Russian General Staff Valery Gerasimov with militia founder Yevgeny Prigozhin.
According to the report, the Kremlin’s alleged strategy of sacrificing Wagner forces in the battle for Bakhmut comes after Prigozhin’s “relentless smear campaign” against the Russian Defense Ministry that began in May 2022. The campaign has focused on the failures of the Russian army during the Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kharkiv and Donetsk. As Prigozhin’s ambition and criticism of the Russian Defense Ministry alarmed Putin, Wagner is unlikely to return to the level of support he received in spring 2022.
#Battle #Bakhmut #Zelenskys #prediction