The European aircraft manufacturer Airbus recently revealed the Global Market Forecast 2022, a study with projections for the aviation market in Latin America and the Caribbean between 2021 and 2040. current 1,440 aircraft to 2,820, in addition to the demand for 2,460 new units, 33,000 new pilots, to meet this growth. The increase in business will be mainly driven by the middle class in the countries of the region, currently numbering 400 million people and expected to reach 560 million by 2038. In theory, the trajectory is set. A route apparently without any turmoil or worry. In practice, however, a deeper look at the situation of the world air market, especially the Brazilian one, is enough to realize that the storms faced since the arrival of the pandemic, and now with the war between Russia and Ukraine, remain threatening. And that may force the Spaniard Arturo Barreira, president of Airbus in Latin America and the Caribbean, to revise the estimates.
The damage caused by Covid-19 will exceed US$ 200 billion by the end of this year. Most companies should only operate at a profit from 2023 onwards, with the exception of those in North America, which should see the accounts in the black later this year. The projections are from the International Air Transport Association (IATA). In Brazil, the situation still requires caution. The airlines were already suffering losses that worsened with the arrival of the health crisis. The amount reached BRL 37.4 billion in the third quarter of 2021, according to the Brazilian Airlines Association. (Abear).
The impacts of Covid-19 still exist. On a smaller scale, it’s true. The Brazilian market showed a 95% drop in flights in 2020, in the first year of the health crisis. With the relaxation of social distancing rules and the opening of the international market, since last year, companies have seen a gradual return of passengers to airports. The movement has been leveraged by tourism and the corporate segment, which before the pandemic accounted for 70% of the total fare of a flight in Latam, for example. Azul has already accounted for a return of 70% of passengers in this category. Overall, however, it’s still not enough. In 2021, passenger traffic in the domestic and international market reached 67 million, an increase of 30% compared to the previous period, but still 43.5% lower than in 2019, when 119 million people used the system. The data are from the National Civil Aviation Agency (Anac).
If the situation was not the easiest, it got complicated after the beginning of the war between Russia and Ukraine. With the price of a barrel of oil on the rise in the international market – it reached US$ 140 in the first days of March -, aviation keronese also rose. In Brazil, it accumulated a high of 15.9% in the first two months of this year, according to the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) – last year, the increase reached 76.2%, above diesel ( 56%) and gasoline (42.4%). A nightmare for a sector in which fuel represents 33% of airline costs, but which, when indexed to the dollar, has a share greater than 50%. Companies and entities linked to aviation, such as Abear, complain about Petrobras’ price parity policy with the international market, highlighting that 90% of the kerosene used in planes is manufactured by the state-owned company. So far, the victory won by the segment was the exemption, by the federal government, of PIS/Cofins on aviation kerosene.
And, as it could not be otherwise, the consumer will pay more to use the system. In the presentation of the results for the fourth quarter of 2021, airline executives said that the trend is for increasingly expensive tickets as the price of oil rises in the international market. Latam, Gol and Azul are studying initiatives to mitigate costs. Latam, for example, will suspend 21 national stretches starting in April. Azul, on the other hand, is analyzing suspending less profitable routes, like Gol. A solution adopted by companies to try to balance financial health and prevent stories such as Avianca Brasil and more recently Itapemirim Transportes Aéreos from happening again. Faced with this scenario and the possibility of aggravation of the situation in Brazil and abroad as a result of the war, airlines tend to postpone ordering new aircraft. A situation that could prevent Airbus from, regardless of the interval until 2040, confirm the projections presented
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