Attacks in the Red Sea worsen conflict in the Middle East

The conflict between Israel and Palestine, which began on October 7 following an attack by the Hamas group on Israel, could expand the area of ​​conflagration, involve more actors, more weapons, and injure and kill more innocent people. A sign of this expansion are the almost 30 attacks by Yemen's Houthi rebels on commercial vessels sailing through the Red Sea, in the Indian Ocean between Asia and Africa, on their way to the Suez Canal to supply Europe (via the Mediterranean Sea).

The route is for oil tankers and cargo ships with Chinese products and industrial inputs. With the threat of having ships targeted by missiles and drones, the four largest shipping companies in the world and the British Petroleum company announced that they will not travel through the Suez Canal, opting to bypass the African continent via the Indian Ocean and the Atlantic to reach the Europe.

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“Ships are looking for a longer route. And everything becomes slower and more expensive”, observes historian Bernardo Kocher, professor at the Universidade Federal Fluminense (UFF) and specialist in the Middle East. The delay and increased prices affect the supply of durable and consumer goods, and put pressure on the price of a barrel of oil to rise.

A commodity closed up 1% on the international market from yesterday (11) to today (12), after the United States and Great Britain carried out more than 70 bombings on bases dominated by the Houthis in Yemen. High oil prices affect the global economy and can generate inflation at an international level.

“The Houthis are a rebel group. If they influence the world economy and manage to put pressure on Israel, they gain great prestige and enormous political capital”, says Bernardo Kocher.

Less than a month after Israel's attacks on the Gaza Strip, the Houthis announced their entry into the conflict alongside Hamas. The two movements, together with the Lebanese Hezbollah, operate with weapons supplied by Iran and form an “axis of resistance” that opposes Israel and North American influence in the Middle East.

In addition to economic and military problems, there are political risks – especially for the president of the United States, Joe Biden, of the Democratic Party, who is expected to seek re-election in November, possibly against former president Donald Trump, of the Republican Party.

For Bernardo Kocher, defeats abroad have an impact on Biden's popularity. “What conditions does a president who is losing two wars have to run? President Biden [já] lost the Ukrainian War [ainda em andamento] and the war in Gaza, which is a humanitarian disaster. Many minority groups, such as voters of Arab and Latin origin, will not vote for him”, says the historian.