In the public debate, all sorts of events, large or small, are repeatedly referred to as historic. Often they are quickly forgotten. But February 24, 2022 will go down in the history books, there is no doubt about that. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine ended a thirty-year period of trying to establish a liberal democratic order across Europe.
Now the continent is splitting into two blocs again: a free western area in NATO and the EU on the one hand and an authoritarian empire in the east on the other. However, it is much smaller than it was during the Cold War. It currently only includes Russia and Belarus. The next few days will show whether Putin can also incorporate Ukraine into his dominion, either in full or only partially as before. There’s not much to suggest he’ll stop halfway.
The order of the day for the West is to hold the fort. The announced reactions, above all the economic measures, should come quickly and be noticeable. It will not be possible to force Putin to turn back. It’s about driving up his costs in order to make further (military) action as difficult as possible for him. It is also about sending a political signal that a military reorganization of Europe will not be accepted. Finally, NATO’s eastern flank should be reinforced as soon as possible. No one knows how far Putin will push his expansion. You can no longer trust his word.
The West has filled the war chest
The invasion of Ukraine is a breach of civilization the likes of which Europe has not seen for a long time. It goes beyond the Balkan wars and also beyond Putin’s previous incursions into Georgia and Crimea. A great power that denies a peaceful neighbor the right to statehood and attacks him without cause, goes back to the darkest times of European history. Putin is attempting to turn back the clocks on the continent in ways unimaginable to many until recently.
In western Europe, especially in Germany, many must be wondering why they never quite believed the warnings of their eastern allies about Russia. Europe bears no responsibility for Putin’s decision, he bears it alone. But the war chest, which now enables him to invade Ukraine, has largely filled the West.
In Germany in particular, far too few politicians have wanted to admit that the income from the oil and gas business in Russia was not primarily used to build a liberal market economy and an open society, but to strengthen the military. What a mistake this policy was was revealed in a horrible way on Thursday morning.
Nobody in NATO would attack Russia
There will still be people in the West who will blame the war on the Americans, NATO or the EU, at least indirectly. And it won’t just be the people who are on Putin’s payroll in this country. But it is simply not true that the advance of Western democratic institutions posed a threat to Russia’s security. Nobody in NATO would think of attacking the nuclear power Russia, that would be suicidal.
In addition, the striving to the West was the free will of the peoples in Eastern Europe, including the Ukrainians. You can’t blame them: Russia doesn’t offer an attractive way of life, and now there’s a military attack on top of that. This is precisely the difference between the Western idea of Europe and Putin’s world: no one is forced to join the EU or NATO, while Putin demands allegiance by force of arms.
The West did not want to fight for Ukraine and relied on economic deterrence and diplomacy. There were good reasons for that, but it didn’t work. World history is full of leaders who could not be stopped from the outside. In the end they mostly threw their own peoples into misfortune. This can now also happen in Russia.
A new era is dawning in Europe. It will be about what Putin allegedly wanted to prevent, but what is actually imminent: the containment of Russia – militarily, economically, politically. The West must not be hesitant here, otherwise other peoples may face the Ukrainian fate.
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