Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to travel to Turkey. This is about both symbolic politics and regional power games.
Ankara – It is the first time since the outbreak of the Ukraine warthat the Russian President Wladimir Putin will set foot on NATO soil again. Possibly as early as Monday (February 12th). Recep Tayyip Erdogan his counterparts in the Türkiye received. They had “many questions to discuss,” as Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan recently told the broadcaster TRT Haber said.
“For Erdogan, this visit is above all symbolic and political,” said Dawid Bartelt, head of the Turkey office of the Heinrich Böll Foundation in Istanbul, in an interview with fr.de from IPPEN.MEDIA. “It signals an understanding between two heads of state who are also competitors in this entire region – Southeastern Europe, the Middle East, Central Asia, the southern Mediterranean,” said the expert.
In fact, the two heads of state are trying to expand their country's power and in doing so come into contact with each other's interests – such as in Syria or Libya. It is therefore difficult to speak of a strategic partnership, says Bartelt: “It is a purely transactional relationship: I give to you, you give to me. And since both are authoritarian leaders, there is no trust.”
Meeting between Putin and Erdogan: Energy supplies will be the focus
For Putin, supplying energy to Turkey is very important, there is no question about that. “After all, the Russians are also interested in selling their gas when they can no longer sell it in many countries.” The Russian president is said to want to make Turkey a transshipment point for Russian gas – also to avoid Western sanctions. The Moscow political scientist Dr. Kerim Has with me fr.de at the end of January: “In October 2022, Putin made the proposal to make Turkey a transit center for Russian gas. The negotiations, which have been ongoing for around 1.5 years, are heading towards a final agreement.”
“When it comes to something tangible, that is of course also extremely important on the Turkish side,” said Bartelt, referring to energy deliveries. But Vladimir Putin also has to ensure that Turkey violates Western sanctions against Russia does not contribute. The autocrat here has to move into a position that is rather unusual for him, a more submissive one; Similar to the relationship with China's ruler Xi Jinping, although much weaker and only short-term – at least if Putin has his way.
“Dual-use goods” and lack of sanctions: Putin depends on Erdogan’s policies
Despite the war, Ankara maintains close contact with Moscow, but remains an important contact for Kiev despite the lack of sanctions. So thanked Volodymyr Zelensky Erdogan earlier this year for helping export Ukrainian grain across the Black Sea. In general, the cooperation is appreciated: “Turkey's mediation is very important so that the Crimean Tatars and everyone else, adults and children, soldiers and civilians, who are in Russian captivity can be released,” said the Ukrainian President.
What remains is a Turkish head of state, who can repeatedly present himself as a mediator in the Ukraine war and at the same time remains an indispensable partner for Russia. According to Dawid Bartelt, the relationship between Erdogan and Putin is therefore “unequal in a very interesting way”. Because Russia is in itself the stronger power, “but at the moment Turkey and Erdogan are pushing Putin ahead of themselves.”
After all, Putin not only depends on Erdogan not participating in Western sanctions, but also on Turkey helping to procure “dual-use goods” to Russia. These are goods that can be used for both civil and military purposes.
Turkish Bayraktar drones for Ukraine: “This is certainly not something Putin is happy about”
“The war may now be entering an interesting, perhaps even decisive phase. Since Russia appears to be in the ascendancy at the moment, this is slowly materializing in the course of the war. Now the continuation of deliveries, such as electronics, is very, very important,” said Bartelt. “That’s why Russia is now swallowing the Bayraktar drones, for example, which Turkey continues to increasingly sell to Ukraine.”
Ukraine is massively using Turkish Bayraktar drones against the Russian military. “This is certainly not something that makes Putin happy,” said the expert.
Speaking of which, war. The international arrest warrant that has been issued against Vladimir Putin should not cause a headache for the Kremlin boss before his visit to Turkey. To date, Ankara has not ratified the Rome Statute and is therefore not part of the International Criminal Court in The Hague, Netherlands. What the international reaction to the meeting will be remains to be seen, but Bartelt is certain: “There will be criticism, but in my opinion it will be important that the processes currently underway are not disrupted.”
Power games on equal terms: Erdogan is working on the “Century of Türkiye”
With the 100th Day of the Turkish Republic in autumn 2022, Erdogan called on the population to ring in the “Century of Türkiye” together. It is undoubtedly the legacy the president wants to leave behind: a strong, internationally respected Turkey. “It is of course an advantage for Erdogan if the President of Russia comes to Turkey six weeks before the elections. Erdogan has another good opportunity to demonstrate that Turkey is currently on an equal footing with Russia, as they always say,” says Dawid Bartelt, describing the situation.
As for Vladimir Putin, the visit is unlikely to bring him much symbolic power. Apart from the few allied countries, such as China, “everyone knows that the world stage for them naturally ends there.” (nak)
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