At Monza pole risks everything for Leclerc's Ferrari: either he goes or breaks it

Once again Formula 1 gives one nice qualifying sessionanyway undecided in the result until the end, despite the sequence of penalties to be applied to the grid once the session is over. The check with the best time Charles Leclerc’s Ferrariwhich finds the pole in Monza with a Ferrari literally extreme from every point of view for the home race. The choices of Maranello were for a extremely low load aerodynamic trim on the one hand and on the other mapping pushed aggressively on the other, evidently for remove the lead in the straights from RedBull on the home track. Curiously, Red Bull faced the entire weekend with an approach diametrically opposite to what has been seen so far this season. Horner’s team also confirmed a choice for a level of downforce in qualifying definitely superior to that of the Maranello team, with a significantly more pronounced chord rear wing. RedBull worked in a key race pace for minimize rubber degradation in the long run, relying on the exceptional aerodynamic efficiency base of the car, above all with DRS open. Let’s take a look to the data of the laps of Verstappen and Leclerc first of all to give us a clearer idea of what happened on the track.

Some things can be seen clearly from the graph. First of all, there is one huge difference in straight-line performance a DRS open and closed. With DRS open, in fact, in the first straight and in the section that leads from the second of Lesmo to the Ascari, Verstappen’s car has performance absolutely similar to Ferrari with 343 km / h maximum speed for both. During the session, however, the F1-75 showed speed, thanks to the play of wakes even higherwith the 347 km / h touched by Sainz and 346 by Leclerc, bringing the Ferrari drivers to excel for the first time this year in maximum speeds registered. This super performance in the draw is evident on straights without DRSthat is the one that leads from the first variant to the Canal and the one that from Ascari leads to the Parabolica. 8 km / h of advantage for Leclerc in the first and 6 in the second they are an extremely significant figure, never recorded during the year and particularly important on a track like Monza where in reality the speed gaps are generally limited due to an unloaded basic set-up for everyone. Obviously this approach from Ferrari sacrifice something. There cornering performance Verstappen’s was generally far superior to Leclerc’s Ferrari. The Monegasque, on the flying lap, is literally clinging to the new soft rubber to minimize the corner gap from the rival, making record an amazing central sector thanks to gods huge risks taken from the Canal to the Parabolica. This can be seen well from detail of telemetry data.

In fact, it is noted (pink arrows) that Leclerc loses the rear and is forced to raise his foot for a split second practically in every corner, even twice to the parabolic. This gives the impression of how good it was on the wire the Monegasque with a car like that discharge at the rear. However, one thing that seems to have hit the Scuderia di Maranello very well is the suspensive arrangement final, soft enough to guarantee traction and agility when changing direction, but at the same time with a compromise that allows you not to have a car that is too difficult at the two corners of Lesmo (of which Leclerc complained in the last free practice session) and at the Ascari variant. From the graph below, it shows the engine revolutions per minutewe also note how in the straights the laps of the Ferrari Power Unit were generally (between 25 and 100 rpm) higher than the RedBull ones (green arrows), another peculiarity seen this year practically only in this qualifying, which once again shows how likely it is is also pushing on the drive unit in Maranello for this Grand Prix. It is therefore evident that at Ferrari they are ready to take a risk on the reliability front for this race or a penalty in the next ones to bring home a great result in the home Grand Prix.
Finally, we note the greater load on the Red Bull even if we are going to compare the percentage of the lap covered with the accelerator above 95%. In fact, a heavier car allows you to lift your foot later in braking and return to the gas before exiting, which is why it is an indicator (albeit obviously not precise) of the load of the cars, and we see that Verstappen has almost a 1% advantage on Leclerc in this.

Race tactics – Ultimately, the tactic that Ferrari seems to adopt for the home race is to start from the front, maybe build a minimum gap in the first laps and then resist the command making himself very difficult to overcome with a very high speed on the straight, a bit like what happened in 2019 between Leclerc and Hamilton. Having Russell next to Leclerc is a nice plus. Mercedes is particularly underperforming due to the great resistance to running of the W13 and if Leclerc manages to keep the first position at the start, he will have the chance to stretch quickly leaving the battles to those behind. For his part Verstappen, however, maintains the favor of the prediction: RedBull is fast with the DRS openand promises a minor rubber degradation thanks to the greater load, but for the Dutch a lot will be played in first laps. Monza is not a track where you can actually overtake easily, and we also saw last year how neither Verstappen himself nor Hamilton managed to overtake the McLarens. If the Dutchman gets stuck a few laps behind one of the front drivers he could struggle to get close and then pass Leclerc with the F1-75 so strong on the straight. Of course, what Red Bull and Verstappen have shown is top-level even in these situations, which is why Leclerc will certainly not have an easy life, but the result that he already seemed to be taken for granted in other races is. slightly less this time. Finally, it will be interesting to see how the degradation will go on the Ferraris given the most exhausted set-up practically never used in the season. In short, once again the points of interest for the race are many, with one Ferrari which gives the idea of being ready to risk everythingbetting on trim And power to search for one “season-saving” victoryhowever, against a Verstappen and a RedBull strong as everif not more.