The victory at the polls this Sunday gave the libertarian Javier Milei his place in the Pink Housealthough the lack of political structure in Parliament will represent a daily headache to ensure the governance of Argentina.
With only 38 of 257 seats in the Chamber of Deputies and seven of 72 seats in the Senate, Freedom Advances (LLA) must commit to generating spaces for dialogue and consensus with the other forces in order to approve bills, which will probably end up being debated article by article.
The director of political analysis of the Legislative Directorate foundation, which promotes democratic strengthening and legislative powers in Latin America, Leandro Domínguez, told EFE that a Congress in the Milei Presidency It will be “a rigid space, where the opposition could set its own agenda, which will end up straining relations between the Executive and the Legislature.”
Here the wild card to avoid a government based on decrees of necessity and urgency (DNU) will be the Together for Change (JxC, center-right) coalition, whose leaders Mauricio Macri (who presided over Argentina between 2015 and 2019) and Patricia Bullrich (presidential candidate who was left out of the runoff) supported Milei in the second round and could pave the way for the libertarian.
However, these leaders need to keep their ‘house in order’, considering that the ‘Acassuso pact’ – sealed between Milei, Macri and Bullrich – stirred the foundations of the coalition: it especially generated the discomfort of the Radical Civic Union ( which celebrates 40 years of the Government of Raúl Alfonsín in 2023) and Civic Coalition.
The largest opposition coalition in the country currently has 94 seats in the Lower House and 21 in the Upper House, but few continue under Macri’s guidelines.
“At least 35 deputies will be able to join Milei’s almost automatic support, but that is not enough and it will have to be negotiated with the radical opposition wing, although these types of majorities will be recalculated in each discussion,” added the expert.
The Peronist opposition
On the other hand, the ruling coalition Unión por la Patria (Peronism) retains 108 legislators in the Deputies and 33 in the Senate, so no force has the 129 parliamentarians necessary for its own quorum or the 37 senators for the automatic majority.
“The space that had a clearer path was that of Unión por la Patria, because the remaining congressmen may emerge from the independents and the left; they will probably have to negotiate with 12 legislators from other forces. The key will be in Together for Change,” Domínguez said.
In this sense, Milei will have a difficult hand to play, since during the campaign his constant grievances against all political factions, but especially radicalism, may take their toll on him starting December 10, when he will have to begin to smooth things over. .
Another obstacle that the libertarian must overcome is his position regarding co-participation, the funds that the Nation collects and sends to the provinces, and how it could lead to conflicts with the representatives of the Legislature.
“This year, traditional politics in Congress was unblocked mainly by the power of the governors, without the tool of co-participation and contributions that began to reach the provinces, automatic accompaniment will be difficult,” the analyst noted.
In this sense, Milei will have to recognize how much he will be willing to give up, what place he will give to the radicals and dissident Peronism – unrelated to the Minister of Economy and candidate defeated this Sunday, Sergio Massa, or to the vice president, Cristina Fernández – in order to continue with his diary.
“An agenda that will involve negotiations with small victories for each force and from these discussions it will be seen who will be most favored, in addition to the creation of new leaderships that will begin to be used as the alternative voice of the Executive,” Domínguez expanded.
An edge that could make it difficult to pass bills will be the Senate, historically controlled by Peronism and now without the strength of other times; However, the denialist flag of the dictatorship of its future president, the elected vice president Victoria Villarruel, could generate empathy in other formations.
The political costs for a running mate who has defended repressors of the last military dictatorship, claiming their role between 1976 and 1983 as a war between two factions, and has denied the number of 30,000 missing people could be enormous.
The Peronist opposition will be able to set the pace, while Together for Change will condition it; and given the lack of dialogue, the Executive could fall back on decrees to govern. To avoid this situation, you should encourage dialogue channels.
EFE
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