Argentina is approaching one of the most uncertain elections in its recent history, with the economy converted into a minefield that the next president must deactivate. Whoever wins on October 22, a very complex transition is anticipated until his inauguration on December 10. Unlike the last elections, three candidates – and not two – are competing for the head of state: the ultra Javier Milei, the Minister of Economy Sergio Massa and the conservative Patricia Bullrich.
The Peronist Alberto Fernández, with popularity at rock bottom, gave up seeking re-election and gave up the official candidacy to Massa, who has lost the fight against inflation – it is close to 140% year-on-year – but seeks to win it at the polls. He doesn’t have it easy at all. All polls anticipate the victory of the candidate of the far-right party La Libertad Avanza, who fuels economic anxiety in search of more popular support and accumulates complaints in court for his inflammatory statements. The winner must obtain 45% of the votes or 40% within 10 points of the second to be elected president on October 22. If not, he will compete against the second most voted in the second round on November 19.
Milei, a deputy since 2021, has been the protagonist of this electoral campaign. The harsh message of this ultraliberal economist against the political caste—which he calls thieves, parasites and useless—allowed him to attract the vote of millions of people fed up with years of economic and social deterioration and become the candidate with the most votes in the primaries. on August 13. He won in 16 of the country’s 24 provinces. Since then, Milei has remained in the lead in voting intentions, although the failure of the polls in the previous elections leaves room for surprise.
The anti-establishment candidate grew through social networks, outside the media radar and the territorial network available to traditional parties. “There was never a Milei sign here, we didn’t see it coming, it came in through the window,” a representative of Villa 21-24, the largest working-class neighborhood in Argentina, pointed out days ago during a tour. Milei obtained great support from the most vulnerable sectors, traditionally related to Peronism, but also from middle and upper class voters. His promise to chainsaw public spending does not scare citizens tired of living with inflation that devours salaries.
Buenos Aires, in dispute
In recent weeks, Milei has toured provinces that he won in primaries without having set foot. This is the case of Salta, in the northwest of Argentina, where she won 50% of the votes. The economist closed his federal campaign there — which he has named “tour of freedom” – last Thursday before concentrating this last week in the province of Buenos Aires, the largest electoral district, which contributes almost 40% of the votes.
The province of Buenos Aires is the most disputed territory. Unlike other regions, which chose to anticipate their provincial and municipal elections, on October 22, Buenos Aires votes for president, legislators, mayors and provincial governor. Kirchnerist Axel Kicillof, who is seeking re-election, received the most votes in the primaries and is confident of retaining control of this key district.
Kicillof has the division of the opposition in his favor: in Buenos Aires there is no second round and next Sunday the winner will be known. What works against him, however, is an economic situation that worsens week by week and the scandals that have affected his closest team. His Chief of Staff, Martín Insaurralde, resigned from the position and his candidacy for councilor of the municipality of Lomas de Zamora after the dissemination of images that showed him on board the luxury yacht. Bandit in Marbella in the company of the model Sofía Clérici. The photographs went viral a few days after a new increase in poverty in the South American country was revealed: four out of ten Argentines are poor and one in ten does not even have enough income to buy food.
Both Milei and Bullrich hope to steal votes from him due to a scandal that the Kirchnerist bases consider part of a dirty campaign against them and that the opponents brandish as a new example of corruption while the pending cases against the vice president, Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, advance.
The economy, center of the campaign
Massa, second in the polls, is trying to avoid a flight of votes from the right to Milei, from the center to the dissident Peronist Juan Schiaretti, and from the left to Myriam Bregman, one of the prominent speakers in the presidential debates.
With no achievements to show after a year at the head of the Treasury Palace, Massa also fears the impact that the latest explosion of the Argentine economy will have at the polls: the abrupt devaluation of the peso in parallel markets. At the beginning of October, one dollar was exchanged for 800 pesos on the streets of Buenos Aires, but the US currency hit a ceiling of 1,050 pesos before falling below one thousand on Thursday, the last business day in Argentina.
There are four exchange days left before the elections on October 22 and it is expected that the Government will order new police raids to try to discourage operations in the informal market, the only one that operates without restrictions. It will be more difficult to stop the new price increase derived from the latest currency depreciation. After a record inflation figure in September, of 12.7% monthly and 138.3% year-on-year, an even worse one is expected for October. The inflationary spiral is the tip of the iceberg of the large macroeconomic imbalances of a country with a fiscal deficit, a large monetary issue, an external debt that it cannot pay and without reserves in the Central Bank.
Bullrich looks for a comeback
Bullrich appears caught in a polarized fight between Massa and Milei. The former Macrista Security Minister has taken too long to sew up the wounds caused in her fierce internal conflict with the mayor of Buenos Aires, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta. The Together for Change (JxC) coalition saw itself as the winner of the elections a year ago, when Milei was seen as a candidate without votes outside of Buenos Aires. JxC has needed two months since the primaries—and to see itself third in the polls—to show unity and present Rodríguez Larreta as Bullrich’s future chief of staff this weekend. Bullrich has also had to deal with the reciprocal flirting between her mentor, former president Mauricio Macri, and Milei.
The conservative candidate, the least skilled in the economic field, has made some mistakes in the campaign that could cost her dearly, but she has improved since the second presidential debate, when she targeted Massa and Milei equally. She seeks to position herself as the representative of a responsible and predictable change, compared to the leap into the unknown led by the ultra candidate. Her most traditional voters are with her, like a large part of the Argentine business community. On the other hand, those who see her as a continuator of a Government in which an economic deterioration began that has worsened under Fernández’s management turn their backs on her.
It is also not known whether or not the leak of audios involving Carlos Melconian, chosen by Bullrich as his Minister of Economy, will have an impact if he reaches the Casa Rosada. In the fragments released, Melconian is heard peddling influence and harassing a state employee. “They are a total lie,” the economist defended himself this Saturday on television. Bullrich had initially assured that they were fake audios, made with artificial intelligence, but later he changed his version: “They are completely assembled audios, decontextualized, put together from I don’t know where.”
The candidates have one more week to try to convince the electorate, especially the 30% of the population that abstained in the primaries. While Massa and Bullrich will use their last bullets to try to get closer to Milei, the latter will do everything possible to avoid them. The presidency is at stake, but also half of the seats in the Chamber of Deputies and a third of the Senate. If the results were repeated in the primaries, none of the three forces would have their own quorum – the capacity to call a session – in the chambers and Fernández’s successor would be left in the air, waiting for the second round in November.
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