Mr. Rasmussen, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has called on America, Germany, France and other allies to give Ukraine binding security guarantees later this year. As a former NATO Secretary General, you developed this concept of a “Kiev security pact” together with his chancellery chief Andriy Yermak. What would the allies have to promise in such a treaty?
A group of guarantor powers must commit to giving Ukraine the ability to defend itself. This is to avoid the mistakes of 1994, when Ukraine received guarantees from America, Great Britain and Russia in the infamous Budapest Memorandum in exchange for giving up the nuclear weapons it inherited from the Soviet Union. At the time, the guarantor powers promised not to attack Ukraine. You can call this a “negative security guarantee”. Russia was able to break this promise without consequences. That’s why the Kiev Security Pact now provides positive guarantees in four areas: First, Ukraine’s armed forces should be able to repel any future Russian attack. Second, the secret services should work more closely together. Thirdly, joint exercises are to be held under the EU and NATO flags – also on Ukrainian soil. And fourthly, a strong Ukrainian defense economy should be created.
Should each guarantor power commit to military aid to a clearly defined extent?
It would be hard to commit to numbers in advance. The Kiev Security Pact is perhaps best compared to the “Israel Model”. Israel and America have agreed that the United States will provide whatever Israel needs to defend itself on its own. There are no fixed numbers here, but a clear political commitment. I envision making deals for five or ten years that will ensure Ukraine has everything it needs to ward off any future Russian attack.
However, we do not know whether Ukraine will still exist in five to ten years if help does not come much faster. Wouldn’t a security guarantee without clearly defined short-term commitments be a toothless tiger?
Of course it would be. And that’s why the Kyiv Security Pact is in no way a substitute for immediate arms deliveries. On the contrary. I am promoting the delivery of more arms to Ukraine very quickly. She needs them urgently. The Kiev Security Pact is intended to supplement this. It is a long-term self-commitment by the guarantor powers intended to give the Ukrainian people confidence. This empowers people to contribute to the future of their country and encourages refugees to return. The pact would also send an important signal to Putin. He makes it clear to him: We are here permanently. We’ll stay as long as it takes, and we won’t let you win this war. That is why it is so important to sign the pact as soon as possible. It should not depend on a peace agreement. If we made him dependent on it, we would give Putin another reason to continue the war, if only because it could prevent security guarantees.
You recently asked Germany to deliver Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine. You were in America recently. What did you hear there on the subject?
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