The second season of Carlo Ancelotti’s first season at Real Madrid ended with an elimination in the Champions League semifinals against Juventus in a match at the Bernabéu in which the whites were one goal away from extra time (1-1 after the 2-1 of the first leg). 2015 ended without a European Cup, nor a League, nor a Copa del Rey, and Florentino Pérez fired the Italian coach, who had won the Tenth the previous year, and hired the fleeting Rafa Benítez. In the second course of his second spell, Ancelotti was also eliminated on Wednesday in the Champions League semifinals, and with much more noise, 4-0 against Pep Guardiola’s Manchester United. But this time it has happened in the middle of executing a long-term strategic plan, and with the Cup in his pocket.
Madrid have a mission for Ancelotti in his final year of contract, after which he has said several times that he intends to retire. Despite Manchester’s very painful fall, the club’s offices yesterday held the idea that the Italian would conclude the long-awaited transition from veterans to youngsters. “Nobody better than him,” says a source close to the leadership.
The development of the match against City is not taken in the club as the only factor to urge to finish executing the relief plan, but as a notable example that highlighted the needs of the squad, starting with the forward. Karim Benzema’s course has been disappointing, particularly after the brilliance of the previous one, which earned him the Ballon d’Or. Last summer, various people from the club, including Ancelotti, saw the need to hire a nine that would serve to give rest to French and as a plan B in the event of a collapse in performance. The dome preferred to trust in another good year for Benzema, perhaps patched up by Rodrygo. It did not work, and the sports management is already probing the market to hire an experienced striker.
The data is telling. In the last Champions League, the Frenchman had chances that, according to the Statsbomb model, were worth six expected goals (xG), and he scored 12. That unusual success was essential for Madrid to lift the 14th Orejona. In the League, his inspiration was not so striking, but his effectiveness was also higher than expected: he scored 0.65 goals per game from 0.50 xG chances.
This course his aim has fallen below what the model considers to be expected: in the League he has had chances of 0.60 xG per game, but has only scored 0.52. In the Champions League he has fared even worse: with chances of 0.60 xG per game he has scored 0.42, far from the lighting of last year.
One of the interventions this summer will be carried out in his position, with the idea that the Frenchman will continue at the club when the renewal clause of his contract is activated for winning the Ballon d’Or. Although, according to a source with access to the dressing room, There are still some doubts as to whether he will decide to remain in Madrid beyond this June 30: “He is seen disconnected from the club.”
It was striking that on Wednesday, after the 4-0 draw, the captain was the first to leave the field, with his bracelet in hand and hardly a gesture to the stands of Madrid fans. Also that he refused to appear before the media when an employee of the club invited him to do so. Because of his character, he didn’t miss that much, but it was a very special night.
The slight doubts about the continuity of Benzema do not extend to Kroos and Modric, who according to various sources familiar with the negotiations have accepted renewal offers. With them, the work of Ancelotti will be especially important, who the club hopes will lead to a more sporadic presence in the eleven of the two legends. Several sources consulted doubt that they will be seen together again from the start in a game of the substance of the one played in Manchester.
Sports planning points to a distribution of matches in which Camavinga and Tchouameni appear much more often in the midfield.
In addition, Madrid has managed to close an agreement with the English midfielder Jude Bellingham to incorporate him this summer, according to sources familiar with the operation, and is confident of successfully finalizing the details of the purchase from Borussia Dortmund and the payments to its representatives. The transfer price will exceed 100 million euros. This amount, plus the 80 million paid by Tchouameni and the formidable progression of Camavinga anticipate an increasingly smaller dose of Modric and Kroos, if the intentions of the club’s sports management are followed, whose execution will be entrusted to Ancelotti.
The definitive outline of the plan is also pending a meeting that was already scheduled for the next few days between the Italian, Florentino Pérez and the executive general director, José Ángel Sánchez. The coach hopes to obtain more specific details on sports planning at that meeting, such as the striker profiles that are under study and the status of the negotiations for the possible new contracts for Marco Asensio and Dani Ceballos, which expire on June 30.
Despite the fact that the first intentions of both were to continue at Madrid, it cannot be ruled out that they end up leaving it and that the club needs to fill their vacancies. The case of Asensio, who has scored 12 goals this season and has provided eight assists, would be especially critical, although the club is counting on the return of Brahim Díaz, now also a Champions League semifinalist at Milan.
The return of the left side of the academy Fran García, now at Rayo, has also already been closed, and whose incorporation would help to ensure that it was not necessary to use Camavinga in a position that neither the coaching staff nor the board of directors consider appropriate for the Frenchman.
City’s 4-0 loss has hurt Madrid a lot, but the transition plan for youngsters is still underway and the club wants Ancelotti to finish executing it.
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