Analysts explained the record import of foreign currency by Russian banks, about 4.97 billion in cash were imported into the country, report “News”. Experts attribute this to the threat of Western sanctions, which can provoke difficulties in non-cash payments.
The average import rate is about two billion monthly, respectively, the volume increased by 2.5 times. The weight of hundred dollar bills received by financial institutions reached 50 tons. It is noted that more cash was imported only at the end of March 2020 against the background of the pandemic and during the 2014 crisis.
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The experts recalled that amid the aggravation of the situation in eastern Ukraine, the West threatens to disconnect Russia from the SWIFT international payment system, close access to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and restrict access to financial markets for the largest credit institutions.
Experts see a disconnect from SWIFT as an unlikely, most pessimistic scenario. KSP Capital analyst Mikhail Bespalov believes that new sanctions can lead to volatility in the exchange rate and increase demand for cash.
Qualified investor of the Central Bank Alexander Korenev notes that restrictions against systemic Russian banks exacerbate the situation, since this industry is especially in need of cash dollars and euros due to the large number of foreign currency deposits of the population.
“Credit institutions are preparing for an outflow of funds from the panic-minded population, so there is a purchase. In 2014, this was observed. In 2020, due to the outbreak of the pandemic, people also stocked up on money,” added Andrey Syrchin, CARF fund manager.
Economist Pyotr Zabortsev explained that there is a strong belief in Russia about the currency as a protective asset during economic turmoil, so banks are preparing for a sharp demand.
Earlier it became known that the international rating agency Fitch sees the risk of tightening sanctions against Russia due to the situation around Ukraine. Fitch still does not believe in a full-scale conflict between Moscow and Kiev, but admits that the US could take significant restrictive measures, such as “banning banks and corporations from transacting in dollars, restricting access to the international payment system, or imposing sanctions affecting the energy market.” “.
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