A.A lot is in store for Germany in the next few years. What the traffic light parties have decided in their coalition agreement will certainly not satisfy supporters of the “great transformation” – a somewhat technocratic term for revolution. But it comes very close to her. The core of this upheaval is climate policy, which is to lead Germany to climate neutrality in less than a generation.
It goes without saying that this is a gigantic cross-sectional task. This upheaval affects the entire economy and industrial policy, affects social policy, planning law and even social policy. The coalition is taking it seriously.
What is the difference to Jamaica?
The “state modernization” to this extent was already on the agenda of an SPD-led government that wrote “dare more democracy” on its flags. The traffic light slogan alludes to this: “Dare to make more progress”. Since the three parties underline this progress with formulations such as that obstacles and resistance should all be “removed from the way”, they will have to ask the question of whether it should not be better and more honest: dare to try another democracy.
Does this have to be a transformation? Yes, it has to be if the climate targets are taken seriously and consequences are to be drawn from the backwardness, especially in the digital sector. Would this gentle revolution have happened with another government? Yes, with a Jamaica government the coalition agreement would certainly not have looked completely different.
He might only have differed in one point: the Greens goals would have been ventilated with more FDP oxygen under the direction of the CDU / CSU. As it is, however, the project breathes a lot of SPD carbon dioxide, which was already responsible for the fact that “more democracy” actually meant more state control.
At least it should remain with a coal phase-out, which is subject to emissions trading and therefore “ideally” already comes in 2030. That is a success of the FDP. The irony of history: This is how the exit could have been organized without the 2038 date set by a commission. It would have been a lot cheaper. The downside of this exit, however, due to the lack of alternatives, remains the entry into the fossil fuel natural gas “until the supply is guaranteed through renewable energies”. It is written in the stars when this security will exist. But it is also in the stars whether Germany will come out of this upheaval as strongly as it will go into it.
Everything depends on “green” hydrogen
The pressure on the expansion of wind power and solar energy is all the greater. The coalition agreement leaves open how the immense electricity demand will be covered to 80 percent from renewable sources in just a few years. Everything depends on the new magic drug, “green” hydrogen, the production of which increases the demand for electricity considerably.
It is also doubtful whether the radical simplification of planning law will bring the necessary speed to ensure that it primarily serves social peace. But it is one of the highlights of the coalition agreement because it contains a reversal of the excessive administrative law that has grown over the years on the tree of “dare more democracy”.
It was not for nothing that the FDP chairman Christian Lindner called these chunks of the agreement an “imposition” for the country and the coalition. That was meant in a positive sense, but you can also say it like this: The FDP bought the Ministry of Finance dearly.
The handwriting of the FDP
It will be difficult for the FDP to sell the financing of this generous social policy program as a “solid” budget policy. The handwriting of the FDP is not primarily to be seen in what it has achieved, but in what it has prevented in terms of green and social democratic projects with economic and financial relevance.
A look at the SPD projects will also show how much “complementary politics”, as Lindner described it, holds a coalition together. Citizens’ benefits, basic child benefits and a funded pension, to name just the most important socio-political changes, indicate commonalities in the label; but the three parties are still far apart as to what that actually means.
Lindner’s eulogy for the “strong Chancellor” Olaf Scholz made people sit up and take notice on Wednesday when the coalition agreement was presented. That was a point against the executive chancellor, for whom Lindner does not seem to cry after tears.
The cheers for the Chancellor was also to be understood as a reminder to all coalition partners. It is true that the three parties are clearly trying to win something like a historical mandate from this coalition, a “narrative”. But it depends on a few people. That goes a long way, but certainly not so far that this coalition will survive the cold waters of the transformation into which it is throwing Germany.
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