Álex Fusté, chief economist and investment director of the Andbank group, has taken advantage of the presentation of perspectives for 2025 of the bank to launch a reassuring message after the collapse, on Monday, of the semiconductor companies in the United States, which led Nvidia to lose almost 600,000 million capitalization in a single day. As he explained, “the materialization of a real risk related to China’s supremacy in semiconductors would require concrete evidence that has advanced chips higher than the current standards of the industry. However, the predominant consensus among semiconductor experts indicates that , although China has made notable advances in data and algorithms, It continues to depend on foreign technology in regards to advanced semiconductors. “
Analysis published in 2023 by the University of Georgetown and, more recently, by Timethey point out that China lacks significant capabilities in the manufacture of advanced logic chips and that it remains dependent on the design of software and hardware of the US. If this panorama is true, “The great risk associated with the development of superchips in China would be, at least for now, significantly mitigated,” said Fusté. Who is behind Depseek? Liang Wenfeng, the new face of AI in China.
The falls witnessed on Monday in the market have been a “overreaction” and a “shock” that Andbank’s chief economist sees how A purchase opportunity in the technological sector. He has also emphasized that the bank will “turn his back on” technology.
The entity has detailed its expectations for the different markets for 2025. It gives a 6.8% potential to the American S&P 500 from the current levels, and forecasts a growth in the benefits of this index of more than 10% this year, with the support of lower interest rates. The European Stoxx 600, meanwhile, takes a 6.2%rise. Marian Fernández, head of Macro de Andbank Spain, has indicated that the most attractive sectors in the old continent are defensive, such as public services and quality values oriented to growth in equipment. To Spanish Ibex 35 they give a potential of 3.2%, while, in regard to emerging, India’s Sensex see it almost 20% this year. “India is today the China of 2003, 2004 or 2005”said Fusté, who sees this market revaluing 100% in the long term.
Is Deepseek so ‘cheap’?
With the market attention put in Deepseek, Fusté wanted to offer his vision about how cheap that Deepseek training may finally be, an issue that is key to understanding the falls of this Monday. As he pointed out, what Deepseek has done is something that other AI models have already made: training with an existing base model (which is much less expensive than training a model from scratch). “There has been a commotion due to the appearance of Deepseek, supposedly surpassing ChatgPT in performance and operational cost, but its advantage could derive cost transfer by using pretended base models, not of a disruptive innovation in the form of hardware more efficient “he said.
The chief economist of the Andbank group has set the example of Copilot -a Microsoft assistant -, which was trained in Codex, a model developed previously by OpenAi. “When Copilot came to light, Openai had already previously absorbed most of the training cost of the base model, leaving Microsoft the simple work of adjusting the model,” he detailed. What is the difference between Copilot and Deepseek? “That Microsoft paid $ 1,000 million to Open AI in 2019, and another 10,000 million in 2023, I understand that in concept of that Cost transfer“
Fusté is “very difficult” to think that the original creators of these models allow them to be used to create better models without incurring associated costs. These original creators, added, could be protected with various tools, including license restrictions and patents; The latter could lead to billionary fines.
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