The State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) has warned this Sunday of the arrival of a mass of cold air from northern Europe to the southwest in the coming days, which will reach the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands starting on Tuesday and will produce a generalized decrease in the temperatures. It is likely that it will end up isolating itself as a DANA (Isolated Depression at High Levels) or a cold storm around the Mediterranean or the south of the peninsula starting on Wednesday the 13th, a phenomenon that will not subside until Saturday the 16th.
The increase in instability will be accompanied by the entry of a humid Mediterranean flow from the east, so it is likely that strong and persistent rainfall will occur in areas of the Balearic Islands and the Mediterranean slope. They are also not ruled out in parts of the Cantabrian Sea and the center of the peninsula, and it may even snow in the mountainous systems. However, Aemet points out, there is wide uncertainty regarding the distribution and amount of precipitation.
According to meteorologists, the most likely scenario at the moment is that rainfall in the Mediterranean area will begin on Tuesday, with greater probability in the south of the Balearic archipelago, especially in the Pitiusas, without ruling out other points on the Mediterranean coast. It is also likely that they will occur in the Cantabrian Sea and the northern Pyrenees, in the form of snow in mountain areas.
Starting on Wednesday, precipitation may spread across a good part of the Peninsula, in the form of snow in the mountain systems, although the levels would gradually rise. Within the uncertainty, at this time it is expected that they will be more intense and persistent in parts of the Balearic Islands and the Mediterranean slope, especially north of Cape La Nao at first and, later, in the north of the Valencian Community and coasts and pre-coastal areas of Catalonia and, with less probability, on the Andalusian Mediterranean coast. In these areas, around 80-100 mm could accumulate throughout the event, even locally more than 200 mm. It is not ruled out that strong and persistent rainfall may also occur in parts of Murcia, the Cantabrian Sea and the center of the peninsula.
Likewise, it is likely that from Saturday the 16th, rainfall will begin to lose intensity in the Mediterranean area and move to the Atlantic slope, although “the uncertainty about the evolution of the episode is very high.”
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