A foreseeable new drop in interest rates of 25 basis points, which would be the fourth and last of this year 2024, will hover over the stock markets next week, which will also put their interest in the inflation data of France and Germany, the eurozone investor confidence, and UK GDP and trade balance.
Pending the situation in France where the fall of Prime Minister Michel Barnier due to a motion of censure will mark a new political period in this country, as well as the uncertainty in South Korea After the failed attempt by its president, Yoon Suk-yeol, to apply martial law from which he later renounced, the markets face the second week of December pending the meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB), the next day 12.
The beginning of the week will stand out for the release of December Sentix Eurozone Investor Confidence Indexto which will be added on Tuesday the 10th the final German CPI data for November, which in its first reading showed a rebound in the general inflation rate above the ECB’s target of 2% year-on-year. In addition, the evolution of industrial production in Italy in October will take center stage.
The halfway point of the week will stand out for the absence of relevant economic references, while on Thursday the most anticipated day of the week will arrive, with the ECB decision on interest ratesin which a drop in them by a quarter of a point is planned, and will mean the fourth and last drop of this year.
The selector of variable income funds in Abante, Laeticia del Campo, has highlighted to EFE the importance of this meeting, from which a new cut of 25 points is expected. After said meeting, he pointed out that at the next Fed meeting, on the 18th, another additional cut is expected predictably 25 points after the two that there were, one of 50 and another of 25 points.
Del Campo has pointed out that the month of December is usually seasonally very positive for the stock markets, which is what we call the “Santa Claus rally”and will add to the good year that the markets have recorded.
On Friday the 13th, to end the week, they will be published numerous relevant macroeconomic referencessuch as the final CPI data for France and Spain for November, the industrial production of the United Kingdom and the trade balance of Germany in October, as well as the evolution of industrial production in the eurozone in October.
In the business field, the presentation on the 11th of the accounts for its third fiscal quarter ( from August to October) from Inditex.
In the US, where the Federal Reserve (Fed) will not meet until December 17 and 18, interest will focus this week on its inflation data November that will be known on Wednesday the 11th.
The beginning of the week will be marked by the publication of wholesale inventories for October and the employment trends index from The Conference Board for November.
The next day, on Tuesday the 10th, the final reading of the non-agricultural productivity in the third quarter.
Thursday the 12th will stand out for the publication of the production price index of November (IPP), and on Friday the 13th the import price index for November.
In the Asia-Pacific region, the focus of attention this week will be on the China inflation of November on Monday, and the PPI, while on Tuesday the trade balance will be known, and on Friday the PCSI of Thomson Reuters and IPSOS for December. The CPI, IPP and the China trade balance of the month of November. Del Campo has pointed out that in China the growth aspect is more worrying than inflation.
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