Oil remains a fundamental resource for the world economy. Although his death has been announced on countless occasions, The reality is that about 100 million barrels of crude oil are consumed every dayand in the very short term, this figure will continue to increase. This demand makes oil a desired good by almost all countries. So much so that, sometimes, the data in a simple report is exaggerated, stretched like a piece of gum, or directly misinterpreted to imply that there are large reserves of crude oil where, in reality, not even a drop of oil has been extracted. . This is exactly what has happened with an alleged discovery in the waters that bathe the coasts of Morocco, a story that continues to give a lot of talk.
In recent weeks, various media, including some of the most cutting-edge in Spain, have published news that refers to a large oil field that ‘Spain does not want to exploit’. Headlines as striking as ‘Morocco wins the lottery one step away from the oil field that Spain refused to open’ have been repeated, even reaching the Moroccan press itself, which also boasts of the important discovery and capacity of this field. that would have crude oil to supply Morocco for almost 15 years (taking into account current consumption). This crude oil would be a blessing for the economy of the neighboring country, which is now taking off thanks to rapid industrialization led, paradoxically, by the arrival of electric and combustion car factories.
These media speak of a discovery of a field with 1,000 million barrels of oil, enough to cover all of Spain’s crude oil demand for two years. However, the reality is far from what is published. This supposed discovery that the media is talking about has a serious problem: the only oil that has appeared is found in a technical evaluation document of an exploration permit, but not in the subsoil.
Jorge Navarro, vice president of AGGEP (Association of Spanish Petroleum Geologists and Geophysicists) and professor at the Polytechnic University, explains in statements to elEconomista.es that the first of all is that the announcement of this ‘false discovery’ is not new, since which dates back to 2022, but in addition “there was no such discovery, something that we already clarified from AGGEP at the time. Everything originated from a misinterpretation of some resource figures prospective (i.e. undiscovered) provided by the British company Europa Oil & Gas, operator of the Inezgane permit on the coast of Agadir (Morocco)“.
Europa Oil & Gas limited itself to carrying out and publishing in 2022 an inventory of possible prospects, reinterpreting the data that already existed. The objective of this firm was to generate interest among investors and companies to finance the drilling of an exploration well in the waters between Morocco and the Canary Islands. However, some media outlets, both then and now, have published news and reports that speak of a major oil discovery. But the truth is that until an exploration well is drilled and the presence of crude oil is proven, one cannot speak of a discovery.
All the information paraphernalia around the supposed discovery of oil revolves, in reality, around a document prepared by Europa Oil & Gas with the aim of finding a partner to finance the drilling of an exploration well in the Inezgane permit, located offshore Morocco, off the coast of Agadir. “This type of document, known in oil jargon as farm outis used to offer the sale of a participation in a permit to other companies,” explains Professor Jorge Navarro.
The document published by Europa Oil & Gas detailed the volumes of prospective (that is, not yet discovered) resources. corresponding to the 5 prospects which, according to this evaluation, had greater potential. For each prospect, they provided a range of volumes with different percentiles, from a P90 (most conservative estimate), a Pmean (mean estimate) and a P10 (most optimistic estimate), expressed in millions of barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe), broken down also in 3 exploratory objectives (targets): primary, secondary and tertiary, Navarro explains in detail.
More than 1.5 billion barrels
“The sum of the Pmean volumes of the five prospects for the primary objective it amounts to 1,670 mmboe“, comments Navarro. A figure that even exceeds that published by the media. However, these figures cannot at all be classified as a discovery. The truth is that, if one day this amount of crude oil were tested, it would be enough to cover consumption in Spain for three years, one year more than the figures published by the media.
However, Professor Navarro emphasizes that to confirm this very high volume of oil (more than 1,600 barrels of oil), it would have been necessary to drill the 5 prospectsthat is, to carry out 5 exploratory wells, and that all of them would be positive, showing figures similar to those previously estimated. This scenario, although theoretically possible, requires considerable investment and a high level of exploratory success.
Paper endures everything, but reality is a very different story. This whole story is based on a study that compiles and reinterprets previous works, but the truth is that, to date, not a single drop of crude oil has been extracted in the area. In fact, Europa Oil & Gas renounced the Inezgane permit in November 2022 after not finding a partner to finance the project and they left the country without having drilled a single well.
“Failing to attract any company interested in participating in the exploration, Europa Oil & Gas was forced to renounce the permit. This was because the next phase of exploration required, as part of the contractual obligations with the National Office of Hydrocarbons and Mines of Morocco (ONHYM), the drilling of an exploratory well, a commitment that the company could not fulfill due to its lack of financial capacity And thus ended the story of the Inezgane permit.
Finally, Jorge Navarro concludes that “this story highlights the lack of rigor, speculation and sensationalism with which certain digital media deal with technical issues like this, contributing to misinformation, and generating completely unfounded expectations.”
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