Once the operation around Grifols declined, it was time to try to return to normality in a company that for almost a year has been a focus of interest for the bears after the publication of the Gotham report in which it was accused of accounting fraud.
Beyond this situation and once the CNMV has practically closed the investigation into said fraud, the value in the medium term should also begin to tend towards a normalization on the stock market, after collapsing more than 37% this year on the stock market.
And analysts believe so. If we look at the valuations issued by the different analysis houses, although there has been a strong deterioration throughout the year, this has not been comparable to the punishment that the stock has received on the stock market, largely due to the accusation of fraud and bad governance and, to a lesser extent, by the problems their business has gone through.
Specifically, the average target price for Grifols A share for the next 12 months has remained above 16 euros, which leaves it an upside potential of more than 65% from current prices. Some analysts even see it doubling its current value, as is the case with Berenberg, which this Monday updated its perspectives on the blood products company.
“The business, the balance sheet and the Board of Directors have improved,” they state. “EBITDA is recovering and will set a record this year, while debt management allows us to reach the next maturities well, so the market should reevaluate the multiples at which the company should be listed,” they add. In this sense, next year’s profit it is being paid less than 10 timessomething that had never happened at the beginning of a course, according to the data collected by FactSet.
“The demand for plasma is robust, prices remain firm and the costs of collecting it continue to fall,” comment the analysts at the German entity. “Indebtedness, maturity profile and liquidity have improved, leaving leverage over 5 times and available cash at 1.7 billion,” they conclude.
As for the recommendation, there are only two analysis houses that at these prices suggest that the securities should be sold while the majority, almost 70% recommend buying them.
At the beginning of next year, it will therefore become one of the dogs on the stock market (a theory that suggests that the companies that fall the most from an index will do well the following year). “It has been a horrible year for its stock market shares and has put the company’s continuity in danger,” warns Bestinver Securities. “There has been a lot of noise, but, operationally, the company has met its set objectives,” they conclude from the Acciona entity.
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