The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has predicted that the La Niña phenomenon could form before the end of the year. The agency estimates that there is a 55% chance that the atmospheric event will occur between this month and February 2025. It predicts that the cycle will be weak and will have a short duration. Neutral conditions are expected to predominate again between the second and fourth months of next year.
The WMO explains that La Niña generates large-scale cooling in the surface waters of the central and eastern areas of the equatorial Pacific. This modifies the pressure, winds and precipitation in the tropical atmospheric circulation. Its effects are contrary to those of El Niño, which increases temperatures and causes droughts in various parts of the world. The phenomena are opposite phases of the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) climate pattern, so they cannot occur simultaneously.
The report warns that anthropogenic climate change is causing an accelerated increase in global temperatures, which exacerbates seasonal weather events and alters their influence on the environment. “The year 2024 began with an El Niño episode and is on track to become the warmest ever recorded. The short-term cooling effect of La Niña will not be enough to counteract the warming caused by greenhouse gases (GHG),” emphasizes Celeste Saulo, Secretary General of the WMO.
Global warming is advancing uncontrollably
The ENSO-neutral phase, in which neither of the two climatological variants occurs, has been present since May. “Not even this scenario has prevented us from suffering an extraordinary series of unprecedented extreme rains and floods that, unfortunately, have become the new normal,” Saulo added.
The WMO report highlights the need to address with greater urgency and effectiveness the climate variations that global warming is causing. It joins other recent studies that reveal that abnormal heat events are out of control in virtually every corner of the globe. The Copernicus Climate Change Service confirmed in recent days that the penultimate month of 2024 has become the second warmest November ever documented. The agency has said that it is “virtually certain” that this will be the first calendar year to achieve an increase in global temperature greater than 1.5°C, compared to the pre-industrial era.
“Our civilization has never had to face a climate as hot as the current one. This inevitably pushes our ability to respond to extreme phenomena and adapt to a warmer world to the absolute limit,” said Carlo Buontempo, director of Copernicus.
World leaders have committed to implementing measures and policies to prevent global warming from exceeding 1.5°C by the end of the century. Various investigations show that efforts have been insufficient so far. GHG emissions grew 1.3% globally in 2023. The increase is above the 0.8% recorded in the last decade. Scientists warn that humanity is increasingly further away from meeting the environmental commitments that would avoid a climate disaster.
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