It is often said that victory has many fathers and that defeat is an orphan. A saying that in the case of Syria is more true than ever. They have intervened in the fall of the dictator Bashar al Assad a broad amalgamation of political and military actors, both national and foreign: the Syrian National Army (SNA) supported by Ankara, the Kurdish militias supported by the United States, various Islamist rebel groups and even the jihadists of what little remains of the Islamic State have participated to one extent or another in the overthrow of the dictator .
However, The absolute leading role is taken by the Sunni Islamist organization Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS by its acronym in Arabic; Organization for the Liberation of the Levant in the Spanish translation), which is the one that has led the last and definitive uprising against Al Assad. Under the umbrella of this group, an alliance made up of several Islamist factions has been forged that has been victorious, but at the same time leaves a good number of questions.
In the midst of uncertainty a name emerges: that of Abu Mohamed al Julaniabsolute leader of HTS, who knows if called to govern the country. For now there are many doubts about what role HTS, a group that has its roots in Al Qaeda, will play in the future of Syria. It is true that since 2016, the organization has been adopting more moderate positions under the command of Al Julanibut it is no less than that jihadist past greatly complicates the situation.
Al Julani still has a lot to prove despite the fact that he has preached tolerance during the 12 days of offensive that ended the Al Assad Government. Nobody forgets that at the beginning of the civil war that broke out in Syria in 2011 He was Al Qaeda’s man in the conflict. That year, Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, who later became the first leader of the Islamic State jihadist group, commissioned Al Julani to establish a branch of Al Qaeda in Syria. Thus emerged the Al Nusra Front, which had “members, money, weapons and advice directly from Al Qaeda”, according to the UN Security Council.
Everything changed in 2016. That year, Al Julani distanced himself from Al Qaeda and announced that he was dissolving the Al Nusra Front and creating another groupthe Levant Conquest Front, which shortly after was renamed HTS when it merged with other rebel groups fighting against the Al Assad regime.
Al Julani carries a heavy burden: he is considered a terrorist by the United States and the UN Security Council. What’s more, Washington put a price on his head in 2017: $10 million. The reward is still in effect.
The United States, which has not yet said its last word in Syria, does not forget that in 2003 Al Julani joined the jihadist fight after the US invasion of Iraq. That invasion and the situation in Palestine pushed him to “fulfill” his “duty to defend” the Arab community “persecuted by the occupiers and invaders,” as he said in an interview with the American channel PBS in 2021.
In fact, Al Julani was arrested by the Americans in Abu Ghraib prison and spent a total of five years locked up in different Iraqi prisons.
Despite its eventful past, Al Julania established in 2017, in the city of Idlib, the Syrian Salvation Government, a kind of political and civil front for the group in the areas that escaped the control of the Syrian Government and the seed of the latter. lifting.
Now Al Julani sits at the head of the most important opposition group of Syrian rebels. Despite not giving up his religious rigorism already imposing his law by force, Al Julani does seem to have abandoned the idea of global jihad to focus on starting from scratch with a population that wants to live away from the memory of Al Assad.
Turkish-trained militias
Although it is the strongest group, HTS is not the only one that has fought against Al Assad. The Syrian National Army (ENS) is another of the relevant actors in the country: is the main of the militias trained, armed and supported by Türkiye. His relationship with the HTS has been changeable, sometimes allies and other times rivals. On this occasion, however, they have gone hand in hand to oust Al Assad.
The rebel militias supported by Ankara They are based in northern Syria, where their objective has been create an exclusion zone near the Turkish border to keep away the Democratic Syrian Forces (FSD), Syrian rebels of Kurdish origin who, in addition to facing Al Assad, are also at odds with Ankara and the ENS itself, despite fighting against Al Assad.
Supported by Ankara and other pro-Turkish factionsthe relationship between the ENS and the HTS has been changing: now they share common objectives, but that situation may change in the future.
The role of the Kurds
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)the third major actor in this complex alliance against Al Assad, is an armed alliance led by Kurds. Controls much of eastern Syria. Supported by the United States in their fight against the Islamic State, they have also taken advantage of these days to launch their own offensive against Al Assad and take the city of Deir ez-Zor.
In this sense, It remains to be seen what happens with the Syrian Kurdsenemies of Türkiye, allies of the United States and whose relative independence of action can be a thorn in any regional arrangement.
Whatever happens, The fall of Bashar al Assad’s government in Syria closes a political cycle of more than 50 years and represents a paradigm shift for the entire geopolitics of the Middle East. This is an undeniable transformation which, however, the consequences are still far from being knownnor if it will bring peace, war or democracy.
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