“A Government of general interest.” The French president, Emmanuel Macronused this empty formula on Thursday to describe the profile of the prime minister who will replace Michel Barnier.
The same week in which the head of state experienced one of those moments of grandeur —and that he likes so much— with the reopening this Saturday of Notre Dame, has suffered a major political setback. The motion of censure promoted by the left-wing coalition of the New Popular Front (NFP), and which had the votes of Marine Le Pen’s far-right, overthrew the coalition Executive between the macronist center-right and the conservatives of The Republicans ( LR).
France has climbed a couple of steps in its deep crisis, which the majority of the population attributes to Macron. Unlike Spain, in France the success of a motion does not imply the investiture of an alternative Executive from those who present it. He President has a wide margin of maneuver when it comes to electing the next head of the Executive, although he will then face a very fragmented National Assembly. At the moment, he has not fully revealed his cards. But the French press is skeptical about the possibility of him appointing a premiere from the left, and that the Popular front He narrowly won the legislative elections on July 7.
The three parties of the presidential coalition oppose the appointment of a head of Government linked to the Popular Front
After having met on Thursday at the presidential headquarters with the centrist François Bayrou, Macron met on Friday at noon with a delegation from the Socialist Party and late in the afternoon with representatives of the traditional right of the Republicans (LR). He also spoke that same day with representatives of the presidential coalition parties (Renaissance, MoDem and Horizons). These three formations They oppose the appointment of a head of Government linked to the Popular Front, composed of France Insoumise (affiliated with Sumar or Podemos), the Socialist Party, the Greens and the Communists.
“No one really believes in it,” acknowledged François Patriat, president of the Macronist group in the Senate, in statements to Le Monde.
Will you opt for a continuous option?
The names that most circulate as future prospects for Matignon point to a continuous option regarding Barnier. The parties close to Macron want to maintain their alliance with the Republican right, despite the fact that this coalition only has the support of 212 deputies (out of a total of 577). Nevertheless, They would like to divide the Popular Front, with strong internal tensions for weeks between its two main poles: the socialists and the insubordinates. Specifically, they want to get the rose party to commit to not censuring the Government until other early elections are held starting next summer, when they can be called again.
In the Elysée the option of a Technical Executive in the Italian style of Draghi has been contemplated
In this sense, there is a lot of talk about veteran centrist François Bayrou. Mentions of the conservatives François Baroin or Jean-Louis Borloo have also appeared in the press; to the Minister of the Interior, Bruno Retailleau, who embodies a harder right than Barnier’s; or the head of Defense, Sébastien Lecornu, very close to Macron and supposedly with good relations with Le Pen. The senior officials of the Elysée have also valued the option of a technical executiveto the purest Mario Draghi style in Italy. It could be headed by François Villeroy, current president of the Bank of France, or former European commissioner Thierry Breton.
As happened to his predecessor, the future prime minister will face the complex task of prepare budgets in a country with weak economic growth (barely 1% of GDP) and which will register a public deficit of more than 6% this year. For now, this year’s will be extended, but Macron expressed his willingness to approve new ones at the beginning of 2025. The head of state has insisted that these must ““return to the fundamentals” of Macronist fiscal policy. This means maintaining the tax gifts for the richest and the considerable aid for large companies given since 2017. A French-style neoliberalism that Barnier tried to qualify, which raised numerous obstacles from his supposed allies.
“I want a negotiation”
“The traditional right has agreed to increase taxes on the richest before the Macronists”
“The traditional right has agreed to increase taxes on the richest before the Macronists,” recalls political scientist Christophe Bouillaud, about Macron’s DNA in the president’s economic matters. This obstinacy of the president for not raising taxes on the richest makes it difficult for him to make enough concessions to the socialists to offset the electoral price that distancing himself from the Popular Front would entail.
Despite this, the PS does not want to be held responsible for the current mess. “I wish there was a negotiation. I see well there is no absolute majority and that at a given moment it is necessary to make some decisions,” the general secretary of the pink party defended in a radio interview on friday morning, Olivier Faure. Those statements sparked a wave of criticism from his coalition partners. They saw in them the possibility for the socialists to distance themselves from the Popular Front to form a kind of “grand coalition” with the Macronists and the Republican right.
“Nothing Faure says is done in our name,” warned Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the main representative of Insoumise France (similar to Sumar or Podemos). “I tell Olivier Faure: watch“insisted Marine Tondelier, general secretary of the Ecologists. After a day of certain internal hysteria in the gauchethe general secretary of the socialists, and until now a firm defender of the unitary alliance of the left, qualified his words by assuring that “we are not going to get mixed up in a right-wing government at all.”
Skepticism on the left regarding the possibility of governing
“Macron is trying so hard to remove the NFP from power that we must not give him the pretext that we are responsible for the obstruction,” declared the economist. Lucie Castetsproposed by the left as a possible prime minister and who came out in defense of Faure. In addition to not wanting to be held responsible for the blockade, the apparent outstretched hand of the leader of the socialists “is due to the internal conflicts in the PS”recalls Bouillaud. This formation will hold a national congress next year in which the moderate sector (led by former president François Hollande) aspires to overthrow Faure and appoint a general secretary who will break with the rebels.
Despite their internal tensions, the four parties of the Popular Front agree in asking for a left-wing prime minister and for him to commit to do not resort to the decree of 49.3a controversial article of the Constitution that allows a law to be approved without a parliamentary vote and whose use led to Barnier’s fall. The majority of progressive representatives do not believe, however, that the president will accept this option. And that would have the merit of leaving the lepenism in a more marginal position, unlike what happened in recent weeks in which the conservative prime minister prioritized negotiating the budgets with the extreme right.
E. Coquerel: “Macron’s problem is that he never questions his economic and social policy that is favorable to the world of finance”
“He will not do it. Macron’s problem is that he never questions his economic and social policy that is favorable to the world of finance. Even a center-left prime minister would be too much for him,” says the rebellious deputy. Eric Coquerelin statements to Public.
The next few days – or weeks – will decide whether Macron maintains his castling on the right, which forces him to depend on the moods of an unpredictable Le Pen. Or try to divide the Popular Front.
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