What is happening in Aleppo and how it can impact the Syrian conflict

Amid escalating violence across the Middle East, which has spread from the Gaza Strip to Iran, the war in Syria appeared stalled or even decided, with President Bashar al-Assad in power after one of the fiercest revolts that broke out in 2011 in the Arab world.

But a few days ago, in an unexpected turn, the Islamist rebels who have been fighting against Al Assad for years launched a surprise and effective offensive against Aleppo, Syria’s second city, located in the northwest of the country. Government troops quickly gave way to the advancing insurgents and fighting continues to this day in this area and others. Russia is supporting the Syrian Army with its aviation, which has increased its attacks against opposition areas, where more than 500 people have died, including more than 90 civilians, according to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights.

These are the main events and actors in the battle that is being fought in northwest Syria, which could have an impact on the development of the conflict that has been activated again and threatens to further destabilize the region, with the intervention of Turkey – in favor of the rebels–, and from Russia, Iran and Lebanese and Iraqi Shiite militias in support of Al Assad.

Aleppo, a highly disputed city

Since the revolt against Al Assad’s government broke out in Syria in 2011, Aleppo has been one of the most disputed cities, due to its strategic and symbolic importance. The city is the second largest in Syria and a very prominent economic center of the country, with important commercial ties with Türkiye.

It was the scene of one of the bloodiest battles of the conflict between the rebels and the Syrian Army (supported by Russia and allied Shiite militias): government forces ended up taking control of Aleppo in 2016, but the city was largely destroyed and , in February 2023, was greatly affected by the earthquake that originated in Turkey, across the border, which also left thousands dead.

Although there are areas in the northwestern province of Aleppo held by Syrian rebels, the city had remained in the hands of government forces and under the firm control of authorities in Damascus until last week.

Who are the rebels who have launched the offensive?

In Syria there are different armed groups opposed to the Al Assad regime. The most powerful make up an Islamist-leaning coalition led by the Levant Liberation Organization (created in 2016 as a result of the Al Nusra Front, which was Al Qaeda’s affiliate in Syria). That body governs de facto Idlib, the country’s last rebel stronghold, where an opposition administration was established in 2017.

Last Wednesday, the Levant Liberation Organization (HTS, by the acronym of its name in Arabic) and other allied groups launched a raid against government positions and, in a few days, they have entered the city of Aleppo, controlling the entire city. province of Idlib (west of Aleppo) and have advanced in the north of the province of Hama (located south of the previous two). The operation has been named “deterrence of aggression.”

It seems that the objective of the rebels was to widen the containment zone around Idlib to distance the forces loyal to Al Assad and thus prevent their attacks against the province they dominate, but the success of the offensive has pushed them to continue advancing also towards south, towards Hama, another important Syrian city.

Broderick McDonald, associate researcher at the International Center for the Study of Radicalization (ICSR, in English) at King’s College London, explained to the EFE Agency that the armed opposition has a “new confidence that it can significantly challenge the regime.” and exit northwest Syria, changing the direction of the Syrian civil war, which has seen the fronts largely frozen over the past five years.”

Türkiye’s role

Turkey is one of the main supporters of opposition groups in Syria, but had recently shown interest in normalizing relations with the Al Assad regime to, above all, send back the millions of Syrian refugees displaced by the conflict –mostly Sunnis from opposition areas–. Those negotiations failed because Damascus refuses to talk to Ankara until it withdraws its troops from northern Syria; The Government has indicated in recent months that this withdrawal could only occur after a credible reconciliation between the regime and the opposition to avoid a new mass flight of Syrians towards Türkiye.

The Government of Recep Tayyip Erdogan denies being behind the offensive by the Syrian rebels, but opposition sources in contact with Turkish intelligence have stated that he had given his approval to the offensive. according to the Reuters agency.

Soner Cagaptay, researcher from Türkiye at the Washington Institute think tank, points out that Turkey’s role is larger than meets the eye and that its objective is to exploit the fact that the Lebanese Shiite group Hezbollah is giving less support to Al Assad – due to its conflict with Israel – so that the president returns to negotiating from a more weakened position.

For its part, Charles Lister, director of the Syria program of the Middle East Institute, says: “Clearly, Assad sees this as a power move by Türkiye, but [el presidente sirio] “You need regional help to intervene on your behalf.” With this offensive, Türkiye manages to position itself better in future negotiations to force the Syrian Government to accept an agreement with the opposition that allows the return of refugees.

His Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, received this Monday in Ankara his Iranian counterpart – who in turn came from a visit to Syria -, and He has assured that “it is a mistake” explain the conflict in Syria “through external interventions.” “Recent events show once again that Damascus must reach an agreement with its own people and the legitimate opposition. Türkiye is ready to provide all necessary contributions.”

Fidan has also referred to one of the main Turkish concerns regarding the conflict in Syria and the reason why it has deployed troops in the neighboring country: “Turkey will never allow terrorist organizations to exploit the environment of instability,” he said. stated in reference to Syrian-Kurdish groups, considered terrorists by Ankara. The ethnic Kurdish population has fled in the face of the advance of the Turkish-backed rebels, who have taken the town of Tel al Rifaat, north of Aleppo, and the Syrian Kurdish forces have withdrawn without offering resistance.

How have the Al Assad regime and its allies reacted?

At first, Damascus troops withdrew from Aleppo due to the attack of “armed terrorist organizations.” Despite having recognized losses in its ranks, the Syrian Army assured that it would regain control of the city and the entire province of Aleppo. This Monday it reported that it is repelling the rebel attack in Hama and that it has killed dozens of fighters in “joint Syrian and Russian air strikes.”

Russian forces, which have participated in the Syrian war since 2015 against “terrorist” groups opposed to Al Assad, have confirmed that they have carried out bombings against the insurgents in the provinces of Idlib, Hama and Aleppo to stop their advance.

According to a statement this Monday from the Kremlin, Russia and Iran have expressed their “unconditional” support for the Syrian Government and have rejected the rebels’ attempts to “undermine the sovereignty and political, social and economic stability of the Syrian State.” Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Iranian counterpart, Masud Pezeshkian, spoke by phone this Monday and expressed their support for “the Syrian authorities to restore the constitutional order and territorial integrity of the country,” according to the statement. cited by EFE.

From Tehran, the spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Ismail Baghaei, has declared that his country will maintain “military advisors” in Syria. “Our military advisors were present in Syria, continue to be present and will remain in the country at the invitation of their government,” he stated in a press conference.

The Syrian rebels have taken advantage of a moment in which the main allies of the Syrian regime are fighting other conflicts and their war efforts are concentrated on other fronts: Russia, in Ukraine, and Iran, in the tension with Israel, which in recent months has led to the first direct attacks between the two enemies (the fact that Iran is more focused on its own defense means it allocates fewer resources to the Shiite groups it supports, some of which also fight for Al Assad in Syria).